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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
02.02.2008
The Compressed Primary Schedule and Electability

Alec MacGillis and Anne Kornblut have a nice front page summary on where the Democratic race stands in this morning's Washington Post. Their conclusion, in short: Obama has momentum, but does he have enough time between now and Super Tuesday to reach parity with Senator Clinton? These grafs caught my eye, however:

Polling and election results so far suggest that the more time Obama has to present himself to voters, the better he fares. In each of the first four states where voting was sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, Clinton maintained essentially level support in polls in the months leading up to the contests, while Obama saw a steady upward trajectory the more he campaigned. In Florida, by contrast, where the candidates did not campaign after the DNC punished the state for moving its primary to January, Clinton soundly defeated Obama, offering a rough gauge on how much the senator from Illinois relies on voter contact.

Now, with far less time and broader territory to cover, he must make do with a radically truncated version of that outreach, relying on a single final visit to big cities to win over voters to whom he remains little more than a first-term senator with an exotic name and a reputation for oratory.

His efforts appear to be paying off, as his standing in polls inches closer and closer to Clinton's. The question is whether he has enough time to make up the gap.

Nothing particularly earth-shattering here, but then there's this from the Clinton camp:

If a few extra weeks would help Obama, the opposite is true for Clinton, whose advisers would be happy with just a few extra days, they said in interviews Friday.

If you want the best case for Obama's electability in November, here it is. The Clinton people are conceding that the more time spent with both senators airing their messages, the worse it is for their candidate. The general election race might go on for eight months; wouldn't it be best to have a nominee who wears well?

--Isaac Chotiner 

Posted: Saturday, February 02, 2008 2:18 PM with 10 comment(s)

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sgoldfarb said:

Yes.

February 2, 2008 4:00 PM

The Stump said:

Isaac makes a good point about the MacGillis/Kornblut piece in today's WaPo, which wonders if Obama

February 2, 2008 4:34 PM

sprechs said:

I think it's more a function of Obama's strong retail campaigning ability, money, and momentum.  I don't think that has tremendous relevance for the general election, and can cut against Obama, since the GOP and their 527's will have eight months to define him.

February 2, 2008 4:45 PM

Androscoggin said:

Sprechs, none of the three things you cite undercuts Chotiner's point:

Obama's "strong retail campaigning ability" is a *component* of his electability advantage. The whole point is that people like him the more they get to "know" him. And if he's the Democratic nominee, they'll get to know him much better than they do now. So there's a big potential upside.

Obama's "momentum" can't account for the phenomenon described here, since it doesn't provide any explanation for the difference between his performance in states where he's campaigned and states where he hasn't. And Hillary spent exactly the same amount of money as Obama in Q4 '07 (and has more on hand), so that hardly explains anything.

February 2, 2008 6:51 PM

felons said:

I agree with Chotiner's post, but only as far as the primaries.  Nothing in the McGillis/Kornblut article or Chotiner's post suggest that this will hold true in the general election.  Yes, for most voters Clinton is a known quantity with lots of negatives which means her support will always be pretty much where it is right now.  Obama is an appealing candidate whose support can only go up.

However, the conditions in the primaries are unique and will not continue.  The press covers Clinton much more harshly than Obama.  I have seen almost no favorable coverage of Clinton.  Some of this is her own doing, of course.   A lot of it is Bill and a lot of it is Clinton fatigue in general.  Obama's press coverage on the other hand tends to read like a singles ad.  I have yet to see any negative coverage of Obama.  If the Republican nominee is McCain, will the press' love affair with Obama continue?

In the primaries, there are limits to how sharply Clinton can criticize Obama.  Consider South Carolina where the Clinton campaign, and Bill Clinton in particular, brought shame upon themselves by trying to inject race into the contest.  The first point is that It seems that tactic backfired and has created some long term harm to the Clinton campaign with Democratic voters.  The second point is that, from what I have read, a lot of prominent Democrats criticized the Clintons for that campaign.  

In the general election neither condition will exist for the Republican nominee.  For example, while there are limits to how much a Republican candidate can inject race into a campaign, those limits are nowhere near as stringent as they are in the Democratic primaries.  As sprechs points out the Republican nominee will have a lot of time and money to define Obama to their liking and with far fewer limits than Clinton has right now.  And, let's face it - the MSM wouldn't recognize truth if it bit them in the butt.  Witness the NYT's recent coverage of McCain discussing the Bush tax cuts.  The Republican nominee will have the freedom to conduct a harsher campaign and even a dirty one.  As for the second point, what prominent Republicans are likely to criticize their nominee for playing dirty to get elected?

Stated differently, Obama seems to be getting a free ride while he is the flavor of the month running against Clinton fatigue.  The general election will be a different ball game.  Much like a July 4th rocket, he is doing nothing but going up right now.  The question is if he will start to come back to earth during the general election or will his momentum continue upwards until November?

February 3, 2008 12:20 AM

Eos said:

Issac's argument and the WashPo assume that the trends are linear. Obama got a boost from SC and EMK. It drove Hillary's national lead in the RealClearPolitics average down to an 8.2 point lead. But the effect of that boost seems to have faded, and Hillary has moved back up to a 9.8 point lead in the averages. She has moved up from 3 points and 4 points ahead in polls taken five days ago to 6 and 7 points ahead in the two most recent polls.

Also, as scrutiny of Obama continues to increase and the second coming motif gets old, there will be more articles from the press like this one in the NYTimes: www.nytimes.com/.../03exelon.html

Add to that Hillary's continued growth as a campaigner and the trends are unlikely to be a straight line.

February 3, 2008 12:27 AM

Eos said:

the above link to the NYTines story doesn't work. Here is the full address--even if it doesn't post as live, it can be cut and pasted:

www.nytimes.com/.../03exelon.html

February 3, 2008 12:43 AM

sprechs said:

Androscoggin,  I wasn't arguing that these weren't strengths of Obama's, I was saying that, it's not some intrinsic weakness to Hillary  (that her aides wanted the vote to come as soon as possible) but factors specific to Obama (and to the timing of South Carolina and the Ted Kennedy endorsement happening so soon after each other.  As felons and pcostello more eloquently put it, its predictive value as far as the general is pretty low.  

February 3, 2008 2:09 AM

rozenson said:

"Yes."

Seconded.

February 3, 2008 1:31 PM

purcellneil said:

It is time for Edwards to weigh-in.  His endorsement today could make the difference.  Assuming he would endorse Obama, tomorrow could be too late.

Neil

February 4, 2008 8:44 AM