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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
30.01.2008
Why Edwards Lost: A Response to Cohn

Ed Kilgore, managing editor of the online magazine and political blog, The Democratic Strategist, responds to Jonathan Cohn's eulogy for the Edwards campaign:

With John Edwards' withdrawal from the Democratic presidential race today, it is indeed appropriate to give him some much-earned props. I couldn't agree more with Jonathan Cohn's assessment of Edwards' policy proposals and their impact. Indeed, I'd go further: His bold and imaginative health-care plan headed off what appeared to be an irresistible stampede of progressives towards a single-payer system as the only alterative to a timid, confusing, incremental approach. And let's remember that Edwards' effort to inject economic inequality and poverty into the debate began in 2004, and never flagged for a moment since then.

But while Jonathan generously suggests this is why Edwards really "won" on a conceptual level and among policy wonks, any honest assessment of his campaign has to consider why he actually lost in reality, and among voters. Any fact-based evaluation of the Edwards campaign has to deal with a couple of realities:

- His message was a remarkably faithful and wholesale adoption of the Crashing the Gates-style netroots analysis of the parties, of Washington, of the Clintonian Democratic tradition, and of galvanizing value of "fighting populist" rhetoric. It was crafted with the help of the maestro of this approach, Joe Trippi. Yet it did not rouse much in the way of support from its intended audiences. In the end, most of the Deanian excitement in the campaign flowed to Obama, who consistently deployed a rhetoric of post-partisanship that is anathema to the point of view advanced by Edwards, as Edwards himself suggested on many occasions. It's telling that Edwards lost his critical contest, Iowa, where he had every advantage at the beginning, after hoping for a low turnout dominated by older voters and previous caucus participants.

- While no one will ever know how Edwards would have fared had he won Iowa, his campaign ultimately appealed to the same kind of voters he won in 2004 with a very different message: moderate-to-conservative white men. His exceptional weakness among African-Americans, in 2008 as in 2004, provides a cautionary tale about the breadth of appeal of "populism."

Having said all that, Edwards is obviously a very talented person who could be of great value to any Democratic administration. But his political strategy just wasn't as good as his policies or his own personal abilities. And the failure of his candidacy should make progressives spend some time considering whether the "fighting partisan populist" perspectives on how to expand and mobilize the Democratic base are now as outdated as the conventional wisdom they replaced.

--Ed Kilgore

Posted: Wednesday, January 30, 2008 2:12 PM with 12 comment(s)

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virginiacentrist said:

Yeah. I think some of these micro-points that you make are important (especially regarding the weakness of rural/working class economic populism in a democratic primary dominated by blacks and liberal elites), but Edwards biggest hurdle was just getting attention in a race dominated by someone with the gender (58% of dem primary voters are female) and race (20% of dem primary voters are black) that had natural and historic appeals.

January 30, 2008 2:43 PM

virginiacentrist said:

In other words, it wasn't his fault.

January 30, 2008 2:51 PM

ChanRobt said:

Edwards lost for a very simple reason:  he comes off as a parochial figure, and as an insincere salesman of populist snakeoiil.

He said a lot of things about corporate influence and such that I have no trouble agreeing with.  But, his overall problem is you can fool some of the people some of the time.  Something like 15 or 20% of the people.  And that's what he consistently got.

At the core, Edwards is a lightweight.  It showed clearly when he faced Cheney in debate four years ago and was rolled over and over.  I hope he didn't spend too much of his own money.

January 30, 2008 3:30 PM

amarshll said:

And I guess the fact that he didn't raise $100 million from pharmaceutical companies (like Clinton) and Wall Street (like Obama) had nothing to do with it.  Because money doesn't have anything to do with politics.  Nope, not a thing.

Honestly, have we completely lost all our reason in this primary?  I'm starting to think so.

And ChanRobt -- I'm amazed that you'd characterize the candidate who drove the policy agenda for the Democratic party as a lightweight.  Curious to hear which of the "heavyweights" you're supporting.  The Clinton slime machine?  Or oh-so-inspiring Obama?

January 30, 2008 4:39 PM

purcellneil said:

Kilgore suggests that the failure of the Edwards campaign spells the end of populism among progressives, and I think he may be right about that -- which is unfortunate because populism is the next wave.  If Obama's high-mindedness fails, the next president will be a populist (and more likely a thug than a progressive).

Neil

January 30, 2008 5:12 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Kilgore's right, as is Channy. Anyone who's met and talked with Edwards knows how light he is, how totally given over to his ridiculous narrative about the bLaCKwAteR and hALliBurToN!!!!! and other corporate conspiracies. The dude took a 6-figure walking-around sum from a hudge fund, for god's sake.

Also, Edwards like the blogblatherers doesn't understand the basic facts about the core economic problem facing working families these days. It's the VOLATILITY, stupid. Not inequality. Not evil corporations.

January 30, 2008 5:48 PM

Winds of Change.NET said:

Armed Liberal looks at the political scene and is reasonably content.

January 30, 2008 7:39 PM

ChanRobt said:

Actually, amarshll, I support the Clintons because I think they'll be the easiest for McCain to beat.

It's possible John Edwards has more gravitas than any twelve heads on Mt. Rushmore.  but, you sure wouldn't know it from his speaking style.  

Nor do I know how he would have fared in the age of Lincoln when most people had to read what the candidates had said.  Has Edwards published his great thoughts?

January 30, 2008 8:27 PM

purcellneil said:

Tep

One suggestion: next time you find yourself in agreement with Channy, ask yourself how much more evidence you need to conclude you are mistaken.

Neil

January 30, 2008 8:44 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Calls 'em as I sees him, Mr Purcell. Came, saw, wasn't conquered.

January 31, 2008 1:25 AM

ChanRobt said:

Gee, Neil, are you stereotyping me?

Isn't that illiberal?

January 31, 2008 2:47 AM

nancyirving said:

'His exceptional weakness among African-Americans, in 2008 as in 2004, provides a cautionary tale about the breadth of appeal of "populism."'

Nonsense.  It was not his (or HRC's) "weakness" but the unique appeal of the first black candidate to make a realistic run for the office.

January 31, 2008 3:24 AM