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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
30.01.2008
Obama Bouncing? (Don't Shoot Me If I'm Wrong.)

A new Rasmussen Poll has Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied in Connecticut, 40-40. Connecticut is a small state, but I think this is significant because this is the first poll that I know of taken entirely after the South Carolina primary, and it's a potential straw in the wind of a major bounce. (The last Connecticut poll -- which was taken by another organization so it's not apples-to-apples -- had Clinton up 14.)

Update: Reader aref_j points out that a new Gallup poll has Obama surging to within a few points of Clinton nationally: "Barack Obama has now cut the gap with Hillary Clinton to 6 percentage points among Democrats nationally in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day average, and interviewing conducted Tuesday night shows the gap between the two candidates is within a few points."

--Jonathan Chait

Posted: Wednesday, January 30, 2008 12:21 PM with 11 comment(s)

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CraigMcGil said:

Rasmussen and Gallup have daily tracking polls which show no huge instant bounce for Obama. It is possible however that he will slowly increase his support given the recent positive coverage. My guess is that national polls matter now since with proportional voting the results should be very close to the level of nation wide support. Also what happens to the other 20 percent now that Edwards is out?

January 30, 2008 12:40 PM

boxofrox said:

Just a guess but I'm inclined toward Obama's viability credentials have increased his potential audience considerations positively. As the voting nears so too he has leapt from the wallpaper to a real live 3-D and in living color for your entertainment and consideration phenomenon. He can't help but improve his showing. He ain't no lightweight. Folks who thought he was just for show now know that he is for real.

January 30, 2008 1:02 PM

fougasseu said:

Where is Lieberman leaning? Hillary? Obama? McCain? Does anyone know?

January 30, 2008 1:11 PM

daniel.bogard said:

fougasseu---

Lieberman left the party.  Endorsed McCain weeks ago.

January 30, 2008 1:22 PM

aref_j said:

Gallup 3-day tracking (all post SC) has Clinton's National lead at 6...(it was 13 pre-SC)

www.gallup.com/.../Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

January 30, 2008 1:24 PM

ilnoca said:

After all the positive coverage of Obama after the last week, a tightening in the polls seems reasonable. Still, Hillary is essentially a third Senator for much of the state and traditional primary voters (as opposed to the Ned Lamont types) fit her mold very well. I hope I'm wrong, but I can't see Hillary winning by less than five points in CT.

January 30, 2008 1:32 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Once bitten twice shy Jonathan. You still owe me 30 bucks.

January 30, 2008 1:37 PM

epicciuto said:

But still, Snubgate might cause some re-defection of Obama-come-latelies. And he always performs poorly at debates. Thu night could turn some people off.

January 30, 2008 1:56 PM

epicciuto said:

But still, Snubgate might cause some re-defection of Obama-come-latelies. And he always performs poorly at debates. Thu night could turn some people off.

January 30, 2008 2:08 PM

boxofrox said:

"Thu night could turn some people off."

Maybe. If he does well, perhaps tahother.

Hey, snubgate may turn otherwise when people tire of the pissantastical posturings.

January 30, 2008 3:00 PM

eweiss said:

Despite the media protestations to the contrary, Florida will negate some of the bounce too (in addition to snub-gate). She may not have won a single delagate but ~850,000 people voted for her there. In fact, she got as much as Edwards/Obama together and 200K more than McCain. Debate tomorrow night is huge as it will be the last major story line before Tuesday.

January 30, 2008 3:12 PM