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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
18.01.2008
McCain Lies His Head Off; NY Times Asleep at Switch

One of the most common-supply-side talking points is that tax cuts always lead to higher tax revenues. It's not really true (revenues crashed after the 2001 Bush tax cuts) but even if it were, it's misleading: Tax revenues tend to rise over time as a natural result of inflation, rising population, and economic growth. Taken at its face value, the supply-side logic would imply that tax hikes always cause revenue to fall, which is ridiculous on its face, and which explains why supply-siders never mention this silly corrollary to their claim.

Until now! John McCain is a recent convert to supply-side economics and still working on getting the talking points down. Speaking yesterday in South Carolina, the straight talker:

proclaimed himself a believer in the notion that cutting taxes increases revenue for the government by spurring economic growth. “Don’t listen to this siren song about cutting taxes,” Mr. McCain told supporters gathered here under a tent in a driving rain. “Every time in history we have raised taxes it has cut revenues."

What? Every time? Okay, how about we go back and look at the last time taxes were raised -- 1993. It's true that conservatives predicted revenue would fall as a result of the tax hike. (Typical quote: "Higher taxes will shrink the tax base and reduce tax revenues" -- Newt Gingrich.) But it didn't exactly work out that way:


The amazing thing is that New York Times, which printed McCain's quote, made no effort whatsoever to ascertain the truth of his point. Just the typical, "McCain says earth is flat, and meanwhile in other news..." stuff. I realize that campaign reporting is hard, and reporters don't usually have time to check on the truth of candidate's statements. (And yes, this is a huge flaw with reporting, but that's another story.) But this claim is so obviously false it could have been refuted after maybe thirty seconds of research. Didn't the author (Michael Cooper) realize that tax hikes don't always, or even usually, lead to reduced revenue? Does he remember the 1990s? Is he aware that the federal government raised taxes and started collecting dramatically higher revenues during World War II? (Taxes were raised and revenues quintipled.)

The expecially annoying thing is that when Mitt Romney promised he could rebuild Detroit's auto industry, the media hammered him as a liar -- and it wasn't even a lie, just a matter of opinion, albeit a highly optimistic promise. Meanwhile, McCain disagreed and was treated to another worshipful round of press coverage. (The Washington Post credited him with telling "hard truths," which, again, takes McCain's side on an issue that's a question of opinion rather than fact.)

As my book explains, political coverage almost never bothers to check on the truth of candidate's claims about public policy. So, okay. But can they at least stop praising McCain as a brave truth-teller when he's totally reversed his position on the Bush tax cuts and now defends them with obvious lies?

--Jonathan Chait

Posted: Friday, January 18, 2008 2:20 PM with 15 comment(s)

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The Ignorant Populist said:

Excellent work Jonathan.

"As my book explains, political coverage almost never bothers to check on the truth of candidate's claims about public policy." Depressing but true. Easier to concentrate on how much a candidate pays for a haircut.

How do we stop these nuts? Look at Bush's "stimulus" package. It's another wave of supply-side, regressive class warfare.

As idiotic as they're argument is, they're still winning hearts and minds with it.

Again, how do we stop them?

January 18, 2008 2:40 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

I urge all Liberal readers not to be seduced by the McCain brand. Even if it is Hillary. Policy is more important than personality or character or whatever.

Please American's, give us a rest from Murdochonomics for a couple of years.  

January 18, 2008 2:49 PM

stgla said:

Without experiments (you know, like the Negative Income Tax experiments of the 1970s), we'll never know the true impact of tax policy on behavior and hence on revenues.  I'm waiting for the candidate who promises to pour money into serious economic research on the impacts of tax policies on revenues and determinants of revenues.  The CBO used to do some good work in that area (e.g. capital gains), but we need less hot air and more hard data.

Why is the debate always "raising" versus "lowering" instead of trying to find that optimal set of tax policies? AFter all, if every politician promises to lower taxes, eventually you have no taxes and zero revenue ("corner solution") and Grover Norquist wins.

January 18, 2008 3:38 PM

FWright said:

"But can they at least stop praising McCain as a brave truth-teller when he's totally reversed his position on the Bush tax cuts and now defends them with obvious lies?"

Why would they start now?  Just accept it - McCain's bizarre sway over political reporters will continue long after the man's death.  Thirty years from now we'll be reading nostalgic columns about the glorious days of the Straight Talk Express.

January 18, 2008 3:44 PM

Lundell said:

McCain lie?  Impossible!!!!!  (What do you mean you don't have sarcasm emoticons at The Plank?).

I don't know if anyone here heard Nichelle Norris' starry-eyed coo-fest with McCain on NPR yesterday, but I am just not getting the love affair the press has with this guy.  Maybe it's remorse for the tepid coverage (as I recall, could be wrong) in 2000.

I'm in total agreement with stgla.  What gets lost on most folks is that the goal of the tax system is to raise revenue for publicly-shared expenditures determined by Congress with input from the President (at least that's what I learned in Civics class back in the 1960s when the "How the Bill Becomes a Law" chart still reflected some form of reality and not an alternative universe).  Let's find the optimum set of tax policies that generates the agreed-upon level of revenue that ensures the requisite levels of fairness and stability.  This ain't rocket science.

January 18, 2008 3:46 PM

propositionjoe said:

"political coverage almost never bothers to check on the truth of candidate's claims about public policy."

This is true and the core of the problem. When someone does attempt to assess the veracity of a candidate's statements, it's national news. Look at how people zeroed in on how that reporter reacted to Romney's claim that no lobbyists ran his campaign. OH MY GOD! He contested the truth of what Romney said. It's a special segment on Hardball! That should be n-o-r-m-a-l, but it ain't.

January 18, 2008 4:59 PM

bjacobson said:

I thought McCain was the last honest Republican. Not you too, John!

January 18, 2008 5:46 PM

mmathog said:

Lots of people actually believe this. They'll actually say 'you don't understand economics, cutting taxes actually raises revenue!'... It's awful.

January 18, 2008 6:43 PM

jm_rice said:

Taxes are for financing government, not regulating the economy.  We decide what government should do -- infrastructure, defense, redistribution of wealth -- and then pay the bill on April 15th.  It's that simple.

Claiming to use taxes like the Fed uses rates has always been the demagogue's game.  Saying that cutting taxes helps the economy is like saying that corporate welfare "creates jobs."  Of course the GOP would say that.  Consider the source.

Anyway, I don't think McCain "lies" willfully.  I think he's just let himself be sold a bill of goods. I still think he's honest.  It's just that I don't think he's very bright.

January 19, 2008 1:31 AM

jbullock said:

<em>Anyway, I don't think McCain "lies" willfully.  I think he's just let himself be sold a bill of goods.</em>

Indeed, is there any evidence at all that McCain is lying rather than misinformed?  Chait certainly doesn't give us any.

January 19, 2008 5:16 AM

aeromonas said:

Iggy Pop: "I urge all Liberal readers not to be seduced by the McCain brand. Even if it is Hillary. Policy is more important than personality or character or whatever."

Well said.  Lest we forget, McCain is a REPUBLICAN, and if the 2nd Bush administration has accomplished anything, it has been to deal a mortal blow to the proposition, current in 1999-2000 thanks to Ralph Nader (aka Judas), that there is no material difference between the two major parties.  

I don't care how good a bloke the old soldier might be, how funny and how principled (seems to me of latelike he's not so very principled at all, but that's beside the point), the guy will enact policies that to me--and I believe many of you softy soft McCain supporters--are anathema.

January 19, 2008 6:52 AM

mmathog said:

C'mon, the 'cutting taxes raises revenues' myth has been around forever. George HW Bush called it 'voodoo economics' in 1980. Until 2007, McCain ignored it also... suddenly, he's turned around.

He's not stupid.

January 19, 2008 1:42 PM

mmathog said:

Actually jm_rice, it takes both fiscal (tax and spend) and monetary (Fed, money supply, interest rates) to effectively manage a large economy.

The multiplier effects of say, raising spending, are quite dramatic and well-timed injections can be just what the doctor ordered.

You don't want to toss one of the tools in your bag away.

Even 'pro signal' monetarists have embraced this.

January 19, 2008 1:44 PM

The Plank said:

Not long ago, TNR&#39;s Jon Chait blasted the NYT for reporting John McCain&#39;s claim that, &quot;Every

January 26, 2008 3:26 AM

The Plank said:

For many years now I&#39;ve been wrting about the odd media double standard whereby reporters refuse

February 8, 2008 12:09 PM