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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
16.01.2008
Edwards Dropped The "A-Bomb" Last Night

One more point about the Democratic debate in Las Vegas last night, specifically relating to the discussion of plans to turn Nevada's Yucca Mountain into a nuclear waste repository. Obama, Clinton, and Edwards each stated their unequivocal opposition to this plan, arguing that science has already shown it to be unsafe. While even this point is highly contentious, what followed was even more problematic.

Edwards took time to clarify that he was the only one of the three to outright oppose nuclear energy. Considering Edwards's positions on global warming, energy independence, and "Big Oil", it is baffling that he would dismiss nuclear energy out of hand. As it stands, nuclear power is the only environmentally friendly, economic, and efficient source of energy that can help the U.S. wean itself off foreign oil. Solar and wind will never meet our demand, and bio-fuels are still years--if not decades--away from becoming viable.

Gwyneth Cravens's illuminating Power to Save the World: The Truth about Nuclear Energy dispels many of the myths about nuclear energy that Edwards' position helps prop up. For example, she notes coal plants emit more radiation than nuclear ones. (In fact, humans get more radiation from medical x-rays or flying round-trip from New York to L.A. than living near a nuclear plant). Also, Cravens argues that nuclear energy plants are almost completely risk-free regarding nuclear weapons proliferation (it's a different enrichment process) and potential terrorist attacks (U.S. plants are simply too secure). She also makes the argument that we likely have safe ways of disposing of nuclear waste, even at Yucca Mountain.

For all the empty "unity" rhetoric that inevitably is present during an election cycle, nuclear energy--if looked at with sober eyes--provides a real opportunity for the left and right to get together and tackle three of today's greatest challenges: national security, energy independence, and climate change.

--Adam Blinick

Posted: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 6:52 PM with 44 comment(s)

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benjamin81 said:

I have to agree. I was trained as a physicist, and from my experience people oppose nuclear power mainly out of ignorance or misinterpretation of the facts. (For example, it is true that waste stored at Yucca Mountain will not decay to background levels of radiation for thousands of years. However, the background level is much lower than the maximum safe level of radiation; the waste will decay to that level within a few hundred years, and engineers can guarantee its safety for that time span with near certainty.)

If Edwards wanted to come out and argue against subsidizing nuclear power with government funds, he'd have a better argument. I wouldn't agree, but it would be reasonable.

The choice facing us isn't between nuclear fission and magical pixie dust - it's nuclear fission or more coal. And where would you rather have your powerplant waste? Buried in a mountain or vented into the atmosphere (like soot)?

January 16, 2008 2:11 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Couldn't agree more. Nuclear energy is a big part of the answer. Edwards is all over the place on this if that's what he said last night.

(Thank you for a substantive point.)

January 16, 2008 2:13 PM

Guiborat said:

I think the reason tha people oppose Nuclear power is quite simple, even though the are claims that we have found ways to store it safely, the sheer timescale involved means that we will never really be sure if we are correct. Nuclear power is short sighted, just on a scale of millions of years, not decades. And, one book aside that says it is okay, there is still no real solution to the nuclear waste problem, a massive issue and problem that we can't just brush away trying to get rid of other technologies. Edwards is consistent in oppoising nuclear power as it is not evenironmentally safe.

January 16, 2008 2:14 PM

teplukhin2you said:

The French get, what, 80% of their power from nukes, and have done so for several decades. Go nukes. A pity that nuclear projects have been bogged down in this country for so long by so much hysteria.

January 16, 2008 2:26 PM

adaglas said:

I think people fear nuclear energy more than coal for the same reason they fear terrorism more than auto accidents:  One may be more lethal in the long-run, but it kills too gradually to notice (a highway wreck reported every couple of days, millions of pounds of carbon gathering in the atmosphere); the other, though rarer, is far more dramatic (a Chernobyl or a 9/11).

January 16, 2008 2:32 PM

benjamin81 said:

If you want another book that discusses the pros and cons of nuclear power in a very clear-eyed manner, I'd recommend "Megawatts and Megatons." It can be a little dry, but it discusses issues of cost-effectiveness, waste disposal, technological advances, nuclear proliferation, and safety. I'd say it comes out in favor of nuclear power on balance, but certainly glosses over none of its drawbacks.

January 16, 2008 2:33 PM

ratnerstar said:

"Nuclear power is short sighted, just on a scale of millions of years, not decades."

This sentence is equally true if you substitute "coal" for "nuclear" and "hundreds" for "millions."

That said, I'm not sold on the idea that US nuclear plants are safe from terrorist attack.  Maybe if you're talking about a meltdown, but not if you're talking about "merely" releasing massive amounts of radioactive material into the environment.  Still, this seems like a risk that can be mitigated.

January 16, 2008 2:35 PM

bcbaird said:

I'll never understand how people worry so much about nuclear material.  When handled and stored properly, it poses virtually no risk to humans or the environment.  Nuclear reactors, as long as they are properly designed and maintained (easy to do in the USA), can be safe, if not safer, than other means of power production.

Downside of nuclear: it isn't cheap, and fissionable materials don't exist in sufficient quantities to make it a reasonable long-term solution.  But the costs of global warming won't be cheap, either.

Solar and wind *could* meet our power demands in the future, if sufficient advances are made in efficiency and reducing consumption.  We'd still need an "on-demand" power source, and nuclear power would perform in that role admirably.

Guiborat:  Yucca Mountain is a fairly safe bet when it comes to storing nuclear waste.  It's a lot safer than the current method of storing waste on-site at nuclear reactors around the country.  The "sheer timescale involved" is well known (and has been since the 19th century), and even if we ARE incorrect about some aspect of Yucca Mountain (not likely), we are NOT wrong when it comes to the inverse square law.  Yucca is isolated away from major population centers , so the risk from any sort of "leak", apart from glowing armadillos, is very minimal.

January 16, 2008 2:37 PM

purcellneil said:

I disagree with Edwards on this, but I suspect that it may help him more than it could hurt him in Nevada and perhaps in a few other states.  After all, he only needs to pull a few voters away from Hillary and Obama to take Nevada - and I would guess there are more than a few anti-nuke folks in those camps.  

January 16, 2008 2:47 PM

butchie b said:

I just find it hard to believe we're still having this argument.  If nuclear reactors were deleterious to health, when would we begin to see evidence of that?  We've had reactors for generations, and as tep points out, the French get most of their electricity from nuke power.  Nobody is suffering in the US from nuclear power.

The eniviros have been obstructionist long enough, and in fairness, even many of them have changed their view.  Let's get on with it, ASAP.

January 16, 2008 2:52 PM

virginiacentrist said:

If I had to guess...I'd say that John Edwards is just reflexively pandering to the far left on every single issue, no matter what the merits.

January 16, 2008 3:01 PM

nayythan said:

The economic and technological ignorance displayed in this post is uncharacteristic of TNR and The Plank.  Radioactive material is a nasty thing to have to deal with, but that's not really the big issue here.  

First - nuclear has never been economical.  Why did the nuclear industry need to get enormous subsidies and risk guarantees from Congress before they could propose the first new plant in 30 years?  Because when subject to the market, when subject to normal insurance requirements, nuclear isn't profitable.  

Second - renewable sources are far more scalable than Adam suggests.  There's no shortage of solar energy or wind power or tidal energy in the ocean. Once capital costs for generation have come down, as above, the next hurdles are energy storage - to ensure that solar or wind can provide reliable baseload power - and distribution from new dispersed energy sources.  For example, solar energy in Algeria running on a high-efficiency DC grid could supply ALL of Europe's electricity needs.  

Solar cells are shipping now that cost $1/watt - gristmill.grist.org/.../8613.  As the link says, all costs of a system included, it works out to $2/watt, which is competitive with coal at $2.1/watt installed.  In the face of trends like this, if we are going to subject energy producers to a free market, there's no need to justify nuclear storage -- because not only is nuclear power not needed, *it can't compete.*  

January 16, 2008 3:04 PM

wagonjak said:

Guiborat says what I was going to..."environmentally friendly" is not a label I would apply to Nuclear Power. We've already had a Nuke Plant almost go nuclear....Three Mile Island....and one going off near a population center would be a catastrophe that would make 9/11 look like a school picnic...

And bcbaird...the salient part of your comment is "handled and stored properly".

All kinds of things can go wrong transporting all the stored nuclear waste in temporary places around the country, and as you can see from the fight a lot of Nevadan's are putting up to Yucca Flats...nobody wants it stored near them.

We could have avoided a lot of the pain we're going through now if only good old Ronnie Reagan had continued the environmental policies of Carter instead of deep-sixing them all!

January 16, 2008 3:07 PM

wagonjak said:

Guiborat says what I was going to..."environmentally friendly" is not a label I would apply to Nuclear Power. We've already had a Nuke Plant almost go nuclear....Three Mile Island....and one going off near a population center would be a catastrophe that would make 9/11 look like a school picnic...

And bcbaird...the salient part of your comment is "handled and stored properly".

All kinds of things can go wrong transporting all the stored nuclear waste in temporary places around the country, and as you can see from the fight a lot of Nevadan's are putting up to Yucca Flats...nobody wants it stored near them.

We could have avoided a lot of the pain we're going through now if only good old Ronnie Reagan had continued the environmental policies of Carter instead of deep-sixing them all!

January 16, 2008 3:07 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Adam or anybody, what do you think of Toshiba's insane plans for mini nuke reactors that could provide power to entire apartment blocks? They're pushing ahead with it and expect to get serious revenue streams in the future with the series. This is a sign of the Nuke debate swinging to far in one way in my opinion.

January 16, 2008 3:11 PM

dbhuff said:

Eh, get off foreign oil?  Nuclear right now is 104 reactors providing ~20% of us electrical demand.  Lets suppose for a sec we want that to be 100%, so we need 400 more reactors.At about $10B each not to mention operating costs.  And waste disposal.  Now lets ADD IN that we somehow convert all the cars to electric, that would require another 400-500 reactors.  So the waste problem is major and real, unless we go to breeder reactors (proliferation risk).  And that's just today, demand is growing about 1%/yr.

And don't discount solar so quickly.  It is anticipated that solar power will be 'grid competitive' in the 2010 to 2012 timeframe.  America especially is blessed with abundant sunshine (at least in the southwest).  Jeez, Germany, with a climate like Seattle, currently leads the world in solar energy, it should be a slam dunk for us.  Replacing todays electrical demand (assuming storage is available) would take approximately a square area 100 miles on a side of current technology cells, which while seeming quite large is actually a small percentage of for instance the area covered by asphalt.  Current "thin film" solar technologies are likely to be able to meet this demand both in performance and manufacturing scale.  Yes, storage and transmission from the southwest would have to be addressed (there are technologies to do this, but not deployed), and yes there are expectations that significant subsidies would be required to get the industry to scale up fast enough and to develop these auxiliary systems, but it compares favorably to the cost of nuclear, and with no hazardous waste and effectively no operating cost, it behooves us not to dismiss solar.  Although I agree that wind, ethanol, biomass, and most other 'renewable' technologies cannot scale to impact US consumption, solar is an exception.  I agree though that nuclear will be part of a solution.

January 16, 2008 3:20 PM

bcbaird said:

butchie b sez:

Chernobyl.  Sure, it's not the long-term health risk from safely operating reactors that you're alluding to, but it weighs heavily on many people's minds.  Your average citizen is not a nuclear physicist, and even those of us who realize the Chernobyl disaster was a product of poor design and operation don't understand the exact mechanics that would make one reactor safe and another dangerous.

In my lifetime, I've seen people irrationally distrust experts more and more.  So it still comes down to the fact people will always fear those things they do not understand, and will never fully trust others to understand it for them.

January 16, 2008 3:23 PM

ralphnelle said:

yes indeed, nuclear power plants themselves may be safer than many have supposed, but is not the crucial point. too many of the previous posts assume that burying radioactive material inside a mountain solves the waste issue. i suggest that you optimists do some reading about the pollution in the Columbia River basin from the Hanford faciitliy--from its activities in the 40s-60s--or Rocky Flats (?) in Colorado. those are not even a century ago and the pollution was massive and is still a huge problem. speaking of physics, "out of sight, out of mind" does not in fact eliminate radiation. finally, there are few reasons to be optimistic about the Department of Energy doing a good job on waste disposal. their record is abysmal.

January 16, 2008 3:24 PM

teplukhin2you said:

nayythan - yes, I'm ignorant. You mean to say that France's nuclear industry is hugely unprofitable? Or do you mean to say that France has (wisely, perhaps) avoided "normal" insurance costs? If the latter, what aside from the intransigence and hysteria of the anti-nuke lobby prevents us from adopting their approach?

January 16, 2008 3:30 PM

ratnerstar said:

I'm pretty ignorant on the economics of nuclear power as well, but isn't Avera owned almost entirely by the French government?  That would make the unprofitability of nuclear power less of an issue in France.

January 16, 2008 3:39 PM

mmathog said:

We'll have to re-organize a lot of basic stuff to truly save a lot of energy... the buildings initiative is good, all 3 Dems have it, HRC is the most forceful and articulate.

They all pay good lip service to alternatives (wind and solar) and biofuels and that's all fine. But only Obama I've seen has actually suggested that zoning, land usage, and frankly a change in the car-driven culture is really what's necessary.

The suggestion is buried on his website, I don't think you can tell Americans that they'll have to drive less and win a national election.

France in many ways kicks ass at taking care of France. Protects her farmers for food security, not that reliant on Russia for natural gas (due to the nukes), and has a gigantic steel industry. Food, energy, and steel, what else does a nation need?

January 16, 2008 3:44 PM

tkozal said:

umm, the regualtions surrounding nulcear power make it difficult for Edwards trial lawyer buddies to make a buck, not so the other types of power generation. thats the REAL reason. Once an ambulance chaser, always a chaser! Go Obama!

January 16, 2008 3:53 PM

bcbaird said:

wagonjak:

"All kinds of things can go wrong transporting all the stored nuclear waste in temporary places around the country, and as you can see from the fight a lot of Nevadan's are putting up to Yucca Flats...nobody wants it stored near them."

I'm sorry, I just had a slight seizure because what you said makes absolutely NO SENSE.

Let's think about this.

Nuclear plants need fissionable material (typically U-235, half life: 703,800,000 years) to function.  This material is mined, refined and then shipped to each power plant.  By ship, train and truck.  Through towns and cities.  Every day.

The spent fuel is either stored on-site, or processed for re-use.  After it is no longer fissionable, it must be stored in a manner that minimizes its risk.  Right now, this means storing the material at the point of consumption.

When it comes down to it, the risk posed by the waste products of nuclear fission aren't that much different than the risks posed by the fuel needed to run it.  The shipping methods that safely deliver fissionable material to reactors have certainly been used successfully when transporting waste.

The fact is, it's a lot safer to bury nuclear waste (much of it NOT from the nuclear power industry) FAR underground in a secure area isolated from major population centers.  The inverse square law again applies, guaranteeing that even if something unexpectedly freaky occurs, the risk will be minimal.

I mean, nuclear physics is well-understood.  Just not by the critics of Yucca Mountain.

January 16, 2008 3:58 PM

cspencef said:

I think what I distrust most is anything that touts *one* source as our salvation from foreign oil.  Aren't we going to have to throw a little bit of *everything* at the problem?  That said, I cannot claim confidence in the security of transporting, storing, protecting, etc. where nuclear is concerned, but that's mostly from wondering for about six years now if our government can do anything right.

January 16, 2008 4:00 PM

bcbaird said:

mmathog:

"Food, energy, and steel, what else does a nation need?"

Loose women?

Screw this, I'm moving to France!

January 16, 2008 4:00 PM

mmathog said:

Yeah, France has a wee problem integrating their immigrants and has some serious liabilities with their aging population, but of course that's what Sarko was hired to deal with.

January 16, 2008 4:21 PM

twodox said:

Another nuclear physicist piping up!

Nuclear power is the one means of generating substantial (i.e. 50% or more) of our electicity needs without contributing to global warming.  It was the choice of the first environment al group in the US which preferred Indian Point to the proposed Storm King Mountain pumped water facility. (You can look it up!.)

I really have to wonder about people who are more concerned that someone 10,000 years from now will have the capability to drill deep into a mountain and get radiation exposure, yet will not have a Geiger counter.  The way we are going, we (i.e., humans) won't be around to care!

The Swedes have solved the waste disposal problem to their (meticulous) satisfaction.  The French have chosen the reprocessing route, which eliminates the need to bury long-lifetime transuranics, but rather uses them as fuel to generate more energy.

The ONLY problem with nuclear power is the political one.  In 10-15 years, when world oil production peaks and crude is $200+ a barrel, if you can get it, we will have only two options for generating electrical power - coal or nuclear!  Even then, we wil lhave to find a way to convert the electricity into a form that can be used in vehicles.  But, if we don't get to work on nuclear plants NOW, we won't even have that option.i

January 16, 2008 4:22 PM

philipkuhn said:

I'd like to second the remarks of both nayythan & dbhuff.  Both said things I was planning to say.

US needs to stop subsidizing non-renewable sources.  The relative costs of  solar, especially, would then be much more favorable.  

Mmathog - I would suggest that our current patterns of settlement have a great deal to say about some form of car-driven culture remaing for a number of years.

January 16, 2008 4:23 PM

mschol17 said:

The main difference between France's reactors and the USA's reactors is that the French ones are all identical.  So, economy of scale kicks in and building them becomes a lot cheaper.  The US reactors were all designed and built separately, which is part of why they cost so much.

To suggest that 3 Mile Island nearly "went nuclear" is drastically misinformed and characteristic of the fear-mongering opponents of nuclear power.  

January 16, 2008 4:29 PM

mschol17 said:

The current storage requirement of Yucca Mountain is something like 330,000 years.  Think about how much technology has changed in the last 100 years.  Is it reasonable for this timescale to derail the entire nuclear energy program?

The people in Nevada are exposed to far more radiation from the retired nuclear testing grounds immediately next to Yucca Mountain than from anything that would be coming from the mountain.

January 16, 2008 4:33 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

"The main difference between France's reactors and the USA's reactors is that the French ones are all identical.  So, economy of scale kicks in and building them becomes a lot cheaper.  The US reactors were all designed and built separately, which is part of why they cost so much."

Didn't you get the memo mscholl?

Private monopolies are more efficient than government bodies, which are at best tax guzzling union rackets and at worst, evil.

Maybe you'd want to rethink your post.  

January 16, 2008 4:50 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Mschol-- if we were to adopt the French approach, what would 100 identical nuclear power plants cost to build? Would that figure be less than, say, what we spend per annum in Iraq?

thx, t

January 16, 2008 4:54 PM

s4200 said:

Protest - Edwards was right. Nuclear is dangerous. Let us try another solution.

January 16, 2008 4:57 PM

jjllss33 said:

Alaska is far from any important population centers, has enormous pristine wilderness areas, and its citizens are more than happy to sacrifice their environment for money.  Alaska and nuclear waste - perfect together.

January 16, 2008 5:20 PM

ahopkins said:

I'm only a quantum physicist, not a nuclear one, but hopefully I'm still a trustworthy [and less biased] source.

Most of the comments here (as well as the original post) are based solely on comments from last night, without looking at Edwards's energy plan in total.  Here's the link, for those too lazy to search for it themselves: www.johnedwards.com/.../new-energy-economy

Relevant highlight:

-- Meet our electricity demand for the next 10 years through efficiency, rather than building new dirty coal or nuclear plants.  You'll note that Edwards came out against dirty coal plants (those which cannot capture their carbon emissions) last night as well.

Edwards believes (rightly, in my book) that nuclear could only be a stopgap measure anyway, due to limited supplies of uranium, etc.  We'd just be setting ourselves up for "peak uranium" in a few years, like we have "peak oil" now.  Even in the short term, however, nuclear is expensive (it only competes today due to government assistance), and slow to come on line.  Why not take the same money and put it in solar and wind and cellulosic biofules, which can come online sooner, don't run out, etc?  Makes sense to me.

January 16, 2008 5:26 PM

benjamin81 said:

While moving the issue of nuclear waste from Nevada to Alaska does have its political advantages, I believe geologists have determined that Yucca Mountain is the most geologically stable remote site in the US. (I think.)

I like the idea of reprocessing fuel, but it can get expensive. In 30 years, it might be worth it, but in 30 years we might finally have nuclear fusion to play with and not care.

And I do think it needs to be stressed that conservation and new, distributed, renewable sources of energy (e.g., solar and wind) should be part of a balanced energy policy. But they need to be backed up by an on-demand source of electricity, being dependent on the weather.

January 16, 2008 5:38 PM

mschol17 said:

IP said "Private monopolies are more efficient than government bodies, which are at best tax guzzling union rackets and at worst, evil."  

I would normally agree with you, but in the nuclear reactor case the facts don't agree.  Normally, when something is done the first time, it's incredibly expensive, but then as it is done more often it becomes cheaper and cheaper.  However, the average cost of the nuclear reactors built in the US actually went up as time went along, indicating that the construction didn't follow a typical learning curve.  In the case of France, they settled on one design, and built a ton of them.  The "evil government" in this case was more efficient than the private sector.

t- The important figure is the cost per MWh, mainly compared to the alternative, i.e. gas or coal power plants.  Coal costs about $45/MWh taking everything into account, whereas nuclear would be around $75/MWh.  This is the main argument for a carbon tax, to level the cost playing field for clean energies.  

Nuclear is the only current immediately scalable solution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  Wind and Solar are nice, but until we develop better storage technology they're impractical as anything other than supplements to the grid.  

January 16, 2008 5:59 PM

whimsy007 said:

There are a number of legitimate questions about storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain.  Some of which are:

- Are there better sites than Yucca mountain which weren't considered due to politics, i.e. Bennett Johnson's bill singling out Yucca Mtn as the only site to be considered by the DoE?

- Does anyone actually understand what will happen to the canisters from the long term exposure to the various radiations?   For example, the cross sectional absorption of neutrons of the canister wall is very different from that of gamma rays.  Will they really last 10,000 years?

- What happens if there is a large rise in the water table (25,000 years ago Las Vegas was swamp)?  In the event of such a rise, does it matter that there is still some magmatic activity in the area?  There are steam vents nearby.

- What research into other technologies for waste disposal were discouraged to continue to provide justification for Yucca Mtn, e.g. proton or heavy ion bombardment to transmute the long-lived radioac-tive wastes from light-water reactors (the main reactor type) into shorter-lived isotopes.

- Can the waste be easily recovered for recycling should the ban on commercial recycling be lifted at some future time?

There is also the question of sufficient capacity in Yucca Mtn and the need for future repositories.  The Nuclear Waste Policy Act limits the capacity of the Yucca Mountain repository to 63,000 MT of initial heavy metal in commercial spent fuel.  The 103 U.S. commercial reactors currently operating will produce this quantity of spent fuel by 2014.  Where would the new repositories be placed?  Will a Nevada site be chosen even if there may be better locations because over 80% of the state is federal land, a much larger percentage than no.2 Alaska (65%)?

.

January 16, 2008 6:12 PM

bcbaird said:

I don't think anyone here is saying that nuclear is the *only* answer, only one of many that must be utilized.  Ahopkins correctly points out, as did I, that the amount of fissionable uranium is limited and if nuclear energy becomes more widespread, that resource will become more expensive and difficult to supply.  That doesn't mean politicians like Edwards should rule it out of hand.

The reason why is that, although solar and wind are making tremendous technological progress and are poised to become cheaper and more effective than fossil fuels, the problem of power demand still remains.  Solar and wind will do a good job of producing a bulk of the electricity needed when environmental factors are favorable (sunny for solar, windy, but not too windy, for wind), they cannot scale their production to meet the fluctuating demands of the power grid.  So we'll always need on-demand power sources (coal, oil, nuclear, and to some extent hydro-electric) to "fill in" power production when it's dark and/or calm.

Should we divert funds from nuclear to pay for solar and wind power?  No.  To meet future energy needs and curtail global CO2 emissions, we'll need to use everything at our disposal.  That means increasing efficiency, developing new technologies in solar, wind, nuclear, coal and bio-fuels, as well as changing consumption patterns.  The scale of this change isn't easily understood, but I've heard the term "Apollo Project" aptly used to remark on the amount of work that will be required.  We have to fund every viable energy project available to us.

In any case, can we all agree that Nevada residents not wanting nuclear waste transported through their state into an underground facility next to a nuclear testing site is only slightly less insane than Cape Cod resident's rejecting of wind turbines off the Atlantic coast?  I mean, c'mon hippies, you can't have it both ways!

January 16, 2008 6:14 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Mschol17 - My apologies, sarcasam doesn't travel well in binary. I of course agree with you.

I was just trying to annoy our more conservative posters.

January 16, 2008 6:18 PM

mschol17 said:

IP- - I should have inferred that from your name, but I guess I'm not that politically clever...

January 16, 2008 6:33 PM

sdemuth said:

I do not understand the either or mentality about solar, nuclear, wind, etc.  WIth existing technology, neither solar nor wind can provide baseline generation capacity.   To do that you need either a fuel based system (coal, nuclear) or storage technology (batteries, pumped storage either hydro or pneumatic) and substantial over-generation capacity (no storage is 100% efficient and neither wind nor solar predictable on times scales smaller than months to weeks except in specialized sites that are unfortunately usually quite distant from the people who need the power).

In other words, we should be looking at all of these, and more.  Build baseline capacity with nuclear  for the 3-5 decade horizon, build out wind and solar for the more stochastic parts of the supply picture.  Figure out really usable storage technologies.  Make a national grid capable of dealing with stochastic supply and demand reliably.  Fun long term replacement technologies (fusion, whatever).

January 16, 2008 6:36 PM

mschol17 said:

Whimsy,

-Better sites?  Maybe, but a lot has already been invested into the Yucca Mountain site, where it was deemed to be the most geologically stable of the alternatives.

-You're worried about gamma rays degrading the cylinders?  Like I said above, the idea that it has to be stable for 100,000 years is obscene.  How long has homo sapiens existed as a species?

-Yucca's capacity can be increased significantly beyond its current size.

The real issue is that spent fuel is currently being stored on site at every reactor in the country.  While the containers it is in will suffice for another 50-100 years, isn't it safer to have it all in one place?  

Who knows what processing will be developed in the future?  If you think you can predict when the ground levels will rise and the containers will fall apart, let me know what the biggest company in the world will be in 50 years, and I'll buy some stock now...

January 16, 2008 6:43 PM

mschol17 said:

sdemuth-

Fantastic points, and I congratulate you on your use of "stochastic" in everyday conversation.

One thing that should be mentioned is that the new 2008 budget completely eliminated funding (as in zero dollars) for the big fusion research project.  Call your congressman...

January 16, 2008 6:55 PM