I think it's all over for Obama. The national polls are fairly decisive.

I've lost 60 bucks thanks to Chait's hubris and ego.

TNR will make you poor.

“The Hispanic voter—and I want to say this very carefully—has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates.” [Italics Mine]

Unfortunately the above comment happens to be true. So why does mentioning it make Hillary a "racist", Isaac?

Am I anti-male if I say that men haven't shown a willingness to support many women candidates?

Jackson, Isaac did not call the comment racist; he said it was not a classy comment.  I happen to think the comment is inappropriate coming from a Clinton campaign official.  This is so for three reasons.  First, the premise of the comment by Clinton's pollster is that Obama can be viewed, not as a person, but as a generic "black" candidate.  Only if Hispanics react to all black candidates the same way is it relevant to suggest that one of the reasons Hillary feels good about Nevada is that Hispanics don't show an affinity for black candidates.  Second, it's a slur on Hispanics.  Is there real evidence that they are racists?  Where is it?  Does anyone have real information on races in which a strong black candidate, with substantial support from whites, did surprisingly poorly in the Hispanic community against a white candidate?  

Third, even if, to date, there were evidence that Hispanics disproportionately have rejected good black candidates who otherwise were good on their issues, in favor of white candidates, I don't think it's too idealistic to suggest that pollsters working for campaigns should fervently hope, like those of us on the outside, that this campaign might break the mold, just as it broke the mold by being the first black candidacy to do well in the lily white states of Iowa and NH.

From the Times Wilkinson op-ed

Fighting to Lose

www.nytimes.com/.../12wilkinson.html

[If Mr. Huckabee and Mr. McCain continue to set the tone for the Republican side, Mrs. Clinton would find it hard to escape the partisan past she unwillingly symbolizes. Her negative poll ratings are consistently higher than those of any candidate running for president. They seem more unyielding as well.

Given that the Republican base has shrunk since 2004, it makes strategic sense for the party’s candidates to be campaigning in an expansive mood. This new Republican style is not a matter only for the general election, however. As partisan battle recedes, the role of the warrior in both parties is diminished. Thus, Democratic primary voters may find Mr. Obama’s claim to post-partisanship to be perceptive rather than naïve.]

[On the trail, Mrs. Clinton has assured voters that she is the only Democratic candidate who has been “vetted” and shown capable of withstanding the right-wing attack machine. But that machine has grown curiously quiet of late. ]

[Could Hillary Clinton retool her image and campaign to prevail against a Republican who attacks with love bombs instead of wedge issues? Mrs. Clinton’s campaign argues that her experience in the culture wars of the ’90s, her eternal war-room footing and her deep roots in party politics would be assets in what they see as a partisan death match. But she can sometimes overreach. The day before the New Hampshire primary, she took aim at Mr. Obama but hit the memory of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. instead, angering Representative James Clyburn, an influential black politician in South Carolina, home of an upcoming primary.]  

This is the best campaign I've seen in decades. Hillary needs to learn how to connect. This is happening. Obama needs to learn how to get real and get tough. This too is happening.

Against all expectation, the process is working-- at least as far as voter behavior is concerned. The media, on the other hand, are wallowing in BS, dopey ex post factos and the blogger's m.o. of Smirks 'n' Sneers instead of fact-based, logical and above all humble analysis. Each day brings a more comical performance from the day-late dollar-short media.

I have been optimistic about the democratic campaigns, but the behavior I've seen from Clinton's side in the past 48 hours has been utterly despicable.  

Effectively they're trying the same South Carolina strategy that worked for Bush against McCain in 2000--but this time across the US.  

I now fear that the Clinton team's cynicism bespeaks a realization that they cannot defeat Obama, only besmirch him.  

This must be stopped, and stopped now.  Edwards has been doing good service on this, but more people who have supported Clinton in the past must let her know that this sort of behavior by her shills and, to be frank, by she herself will not be tolerated.

It is understandable that they're running scared, but this is shameful and doing the republicans' work for them.