Arizona
Sen. John McCain defeated former Gov. Mitt Romney to win the New Hampshire
Republican primary. And there is a delicious irony in this result.
If you look at their political history before the presidential race began last
year, Romney is the more moderate of the candidate, particularly on social and
economic issues. His main foreign policy advisor Mitchell Reiss is also a
former aide to Colin Powell and probably more critical of the conduct of the Iraq war than
McCain ever was.
But
if you look at the exit polls, McCain got his edge over Romney by winning over
moderates and people who were critical of Bush administration's foreign and
economic policies and who took a more liberal position on abortion or gay civil
unions. These could have been Romney's voters, but he opted to market himself
as a right-winger. As a result, he bested McCain only among voters who
considered themselves "very conservative" and were
"enthusiastic" about the Bush administration. In New Hampshire, these
voters were a decided minority. Here's a more detailed breakdown.
McCain's
biggest margins over Romney were among the following: college graduates and
post-graduates, independents, voters who considered themselves liberal and
moderate (who made up 47 percent of the GOP electorate), those were
"dissatisfied or angry" with the Bush administration, those who
"disapprove" of the Iraq war (36 percent of the GOP electorate),
those who were worried about the economy (80 percent of the GOP electorate),
those who wanted a candidate who "says what he believes," who will be
the most effective leaders and commander in chief, who supports civil unions
(38 percent of the GOP electorate!), and those who want a change to "less
conservative politics."
Romney
did best among the very conservative and those who thought illegal immigration
was the most important issue. He also "won" the contest for who
ran the most "unfair campaign." In that result and in the in
the measure of which candidate "says what he believes" (where McCain
bested Romney by 49 to 13 percent), you can credit the Union Leader and Concord
Monitor editorials that excoriated Romney as a phony.
--John B. Judis