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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
09.01.2008
Secret Ballot Versus Caucus: A Theory

If you’re a Hillary Clinton supporter, it must not be easy to admit in public. You risk the ire of the omnipresent Clinton haters; you look like an establishmentarian square. And it must be even harder to admit in a social forum like the Iowa Caucuses. But in the privacy of the voting booth, it’s a lot easier to say that you’re bucking the Obama swoon and prefer HRC.

--Frank Foer

Posted: Wednesday, January 09, 2008 3:23 AM with 6 comment(s)

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drdannyu said:

Um...FF, I was pretty pro-Hillary for quite some time, and it wasn't really all that hard.  If she's the nominee, I will be VERY pro-Clinton, because I think she's a damn sight better than anyone the GOP has to offer.

Next theory, please.

January 8, 2008 10:28 PM

epicciuto said:

I'd really hate to think that this is the case in this instance, but isn't it true that black candidates tend to do better in polls than in elections? Something about wanting to appear to support a black in public, but not in private. That seems more plausible than being embarrassed to be pro-Hillary.

January 8, 2008 10:36 PM

shims-b said:

Has anyone else realized that a key factor here might have been Bill Richardson? He famously threw most of his support to Obama in Iowa (although Obama likely would have won in any case), but obviously, that's not how it works in a primary, and Richardson took in something like 4%. If most of that would have gone to Obama, he would be speaking now, and we would have already sent Hillary to the showers.

Another point: Some have been discussing whether Edwards will drop out of the race or not. I think CW (which has been almost entirely wrong this primary season, but what the hey) believes that more Edwards supporters would go to Hillary than to Obama. If that is true, and if, as has been speculated, Edwards has something against Hillary and is pulling for Obama, then he may be spitefully staying in the race to keep his voters from going over to the Clinton camp. Just a thought...

January 8, 2008 11:17 PM

Rhubarbs said:

Danyu, I'm with you on rejecting the theory, though for opposing reasons. I don't like Hillary as a candidate, and even more than anything particular to her as an individual, I despise the anti-meritocratic, anti-democratic phenomenon that her presence in elected life stands for.

But it's never been anything other than easy for Hillary backers to "admit" to being Hillaryphiles. Hillaryphiles dominate local Democratic party organizations across the country. You know, the hardcore insiders who only really talk with other active local party members, and are thus under the delusion than any Americans other than the most involved party activists are willing to vote for Hillary in a general election. Among that crowd, not being vocally for Hillary is tantamount to being against God, George Washington, baseball, and women's suffrage all at once. No one is embarrassed about being pro-Hillary.

BTW, in her acceptance speech, Hillary just contrasted herself implicitly with Obama by saying she would "end the war in Iraq the right way." Given that her opponents are clearly for withdrawal, this amounts to a pretty overt promise to keep the war going indefinitely. Are her supporters even listening to what she says or how she's votes?

January 8, 2008 11:23 PM

The Plank said:

Half-baked New Hampshire theories abound! Beyond the women up in arms, I'll throw in with Frank's

January 8, 2008 11:31 PM

drdannyu said:

Um...over 80,000 people, who can't ALL be party insiders, voted for her.  

January 8, 2008 11:46 PM