I've looked at the current Democratic exit polls, which,
incidentally, are adjusted later to fit the final results, so what I have to say
here must taken as subject to revision. What they show is that the pattern that
held up earlier in the year between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama – not in
terms of the extent of their support, but in terms of who is supporting them –
is holding up in New Hampshire. Clinton is still doing well among
women (particularly older and married women), traditional Democrats, voters over
40, and among lower-middle income white voters without college
degrees who are worried about the economy. Obama is doing
fabulously among the young and very well among independents and upscale
Independents. Both of these can also be important blocs for a
Democrat to win in the fall.
Here are the groups in which Obama enjoyed a significant
margin over Clinton: men, young voters (18-24), voters making more than $50,000,
voters with post-graduate education (a good indication of professionals),
independents, first time voters, voters without religious affiliation, men
without children and single men, voters who said they were getting ahead
financially, voters who thought the war in Iraq was the most important issue,
who wanted change, and who wanted someone who could unite the country.
Here are Clinton's groups: women, particularly married women,
voters over 40, voters making less than $50,000, voters without a college
degree, union voters, Democrats, Catholics (an important constituency for the
Democrats), people very worried about the economy, voters who
thought the economy was most important, voters who valued experience, and voters
who evaluated candidates on whether they "care about people like me."
There were anomalies. Voters who thought the war in Iraq was
the most important issue favored Obama by 46 to 33 percent, while voters who
favored our withdrawing all troops "as soon as possible" favored
Clinton by 40 to 36 percent. That may reflect Clinton's higher rating as a
potential commander-in-chief, or it may just be a statistical anomaly.
Clinton's support by 38 to 20 percent over Obama on the question of which
"one of these candidates "cares about people like me" is also interesting, and
suggests that Obama has a different kind of charisma than Bill Clinton or George
W. Bush. This was, too, Edwards' strongest category – the only one
where he won more support than his rivals.
What does this mean for the future? If one
assumes that Obama is the more likely nominee, it means that he is going to find
a way of reaching white working class voters. If he can't, he'll
have trouble winning a lot of those Midwestern swing states.
Clinton, meanwhile, has to suggest those independents and
independently-minded Democrats who don't look back nostalgically on the '90s
that she would make a better nominee and president.
--John B. Judis