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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
06.01.2008
Has Clinton Gotten a Raw Deal?

I'm not surprised to discover that Hillary Clinton's angry response to John Edwards during the ABC/WMUR debate has dominated the coverage. As I wrote last night, when it happened, it's precisely the kind of theatrical moment that on which the media thrives--although, in fairness, a lot of voters obsess over these things, too. (It clearly made a big impression on this focus group Frank Luntz assembled for Fox News.) 

And while some people think Hillary came off well, showing determination and emotion, the majority opinion seems to be that she lost her cool--that she snapped. I even saw one person call it the "Hillary scream"--a reference to Howard Dean's infamous speech in 2004--although I can't seem to find it on the web now.

Something else did surprise me, however--the reaction to an episode later in the debate. It was right at the beginning of the second half, when WMUR's Scott Spradling suggested to Clinton that voters simply liked Barack Obama more than they liked her. Smiling, Clinton answered, "well, that hurts my feelings. ... He's very likable. I agree with that. I don't think I'm that bad."

While a lot of commentators have noted that response, citing it as evidence of her humanity, I've yet to hear or read anybody discussing the quip it provoked from Obama: "You're likable enough, Hillary," he said. But look at those words "likable enough." That's not exactly flattery, particularly for a guy so famous for his civility. What's more, he said it in a way--at least to me--seemed smug or even a little bit cruel, like the cool kids laughing at the ugly girl on prom night.

Now, these things are incredibly subjective, so perhaps I'm in the minority here. And even if Obama was being mean, so what? In a hard-fought campaign like this, you have to assume some bad feelings will build up--and that, particularly at moments of exhaustion like last night's showdown, those feelings will rise to the surface. Clinton and Obama are both human--there's nothing wrong with flashing actual emotions now and then. They are also grown-ups. Obama has a right to feel a little smug these days. And Clinton's self-esteem, well, it will survive the episode just fine.

But the fact that Clinton's rhetorical incident has generated so much discussion--compared to nothing for Obama's--strikes me as something of a double-standard. Which leads me to Kevin Drum's excellent post today, expressing more or less what I've been thinking recently:

Am I feeling bitter? You bet. Not because Hillary Clinton seems more likely than not to lose — I can live with that pretty easily — but because of how she's likely to lose. Because the press doesn't like her. Because any time a woman raises her voice half a decibel she instantly becomes shrill. Because we insist on an idiotic nominating system that gives a bunch of Iowa corn farmers 20x the influence of any Democratic voter in any urban area in the country. Because the fever swamp, in the end, is getting the last laugh.

Kevin goes on to note that nobody forced Clinton to run for president--or to hire Mark Penn, for that matter. That's very true. Besides, if Obama can endear himself towards the press (and the public) but Clinton can't, that's obviously going to affect their respective election prospects. Anybody who cares about enacting progressive policies has to take that very seriously.

And, for the record, I would be plenty enthusiastic about Obama as the Democratic nominee. As I've written before, each of the leading Democrats offers an attractive combination of skills and ideas that, whatever his or her respective flaws, bodes well for the campaign and for the presidency. I feel like I could make an equally compelling case for any of them.

But it's hard to escape the feeling that Clinton has received a raw deal, particularly from the media, in this campaign. It is not the only reason she's struggling right now or even the most important one. But it's still a factor of some importance. And there's no reason to be enthusiastic about that.

--Jonathan Cohn

Posted: Sunday, January 06, 2008 10:42 PM with 47 comment(s)

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scottlooper said:

Hear, hear, Mr. Cohn.  With Hillary, the media's poor coverage began the day after she was re-elected to her Senate seat in New York (the NYTimes ran a fairly negative piece detailing how some of her campaign contributors were upset and felt betrayed by her because she spent so much money on her senate campaign, not leaving much for a presidential bid).  TNR hasn't been much better (with Sean Wilentz's article comparing the media's gushing over Obama's intuition to the 2000 media's gushing over Bush's intuition -- while never comparing Obama to Bush -- being slammed by Cass Sunstein and many of the TNR's readers as a "smear".)  While Clinton's probably out this time around, it would have been interesting to see how successful her campaign would've been if the media gave her a fair shot.  (Reminds me of the media's bashing of the media-hating Barry Bonds to the media's near-deaf ear to the Mark McGuires and Andy Pettites of MLB.)

January 6, 2008 6:15 PM

AaronBBrown said:

Hillary Clinton should've run this campaign in 2004, but she didn't have the guts to go up against the Bush administration.  Now it's too late, America has moved on, and left the Clintons in the past.

What was it that Obama quoted about the fierce urgency of now.  The American people needed real help in 2004, but she made the tactical decision to wait and leave us at the mercy of the worst administration in US history, apparently thinking we'd be so grateful for any relief by then that she'd get a free ride.  Tragic miscalculation.

CNN politics Latest State Polls, January 5-6, 2008

www.cnn.com/.../new.hampshire.html

Obama -- 39%

Clinton -- 29%

Edwards -- 16%

Hillary advisers fear N.H. loss

www.politico.com/.../7759.html

January 6, 2008 7:13 PM

Seoul2008 said:

Funny -- seeing Obama's quip live, I had the impression that it was warm and good natured irony rather than the cool, backhanded remark that it would appear to be upon a distanced rereading.  Especially coming amid a relaxed moment during the debate -- when Clinton herself was joking about public perceptions in a self-deprecating tone -- it would be hard to construe mean-spiritedness or smugness into Obama's remark.  

In terms of the tone of the media, from the perspective of an Obama supporter, it is hard to overcome the initial feelings of frustration of having to endure several months of an awed and admiring media narrative that portrayed Clinton as the inevitable candidate and depicted a flailing Obama campaign that didn't have what it takes to survive the primary process.  Any current negative coverage of Clinton is also surely in part due to the contempt for the media and lack of access with which her campaign has been managed all along.  Leave "intuition aside", Clinton's antipathy toward the media is a much more troubling similarity with Bush.  

Finally, I agree that the way the media jumps on a woman candidate showing anger is ridiculously unfair.  For followers of French politics, this harkens back to the Segolene Royal-Sarkozy debate where Sarkozy took advantage of a similar moment to ridicule Royal.  That should humble those who would say we couldn't match the French for chauvinism.  

January 6, 2008 7:19 PM

rozenson said:

Is it possible you're rooting a bit for Hillary because she cites the 15 million uninsured number all the time?

I jest.

Hillary probably did get a bit of "raw deal" throughout this campaign cycle. People are just tired of her. And she ain't all that charismatic either.

January 6, 2008 7:47 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

Outstanding post Jonathan and long needed on TNR, thank you.  

If Senator Clinton defends herself from a constant onslaught of attacks by her opponents she's an "angry woman" (cue scary music, people looking away in disgust and horror).  I thought she was great in the whole debate.

If she doesn't respond powerfully, she's cold and all the other clarvoiyant things people say about her.  More people in the media mind-read that woman than I can even believe (Andrew Sullivan: "what I saw was a woman saying, how DARE you question me after how hard I've worked?"  Amazing clarvoiyant that Andrew. He's the worst offender).

There are valid critiques of her, but so many of them are more Al-Gore-itis on the part of the press. Even as an Obama supporter, I feel angry and disgusted for her.

(That dig by Obama was mean, ugly).

January 6, 2008 7:49 PM

liebig said:

That analysis is too easy.  If Clinton were winning, you'd be arguing that Obama was losing because of his race.  But it's also possible that he's just a better politician than she is.  Other African-American candidates would be struggling where he is succeeding, and a better female candidate would be succeeding where she is failing.

By the way, Kevin Drum should go easy on Iowa.  Judging from the county-by-county results, if there were fewer farmers in Iowa, Clinton would have lost by an even larger margin.

January 6, 2008 7:49 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

I see what you're saying liebig - I should be clear that I don't think she's losing because she's a woman.  I know she's losing because she simply cannot compete with Obama's platform and communicating ability - which are a once in a lifetime occurances.  I'm just tired of the sexist, unfair nature of some of her coverage.  

January 6, 2008 8:03 PM

liebig said:

I'm not saying she isn't politically disadvantaged by her gender -- plainly she is.  Just that that type of disadvantage is not insurmountable when the right candidate comes along, as Obama himself is showing.  It's going to be hard for Clinton to blame people's prejudices for her defeats, when she's losing to an African-American.

The unfairness, in both Clinton's and Obama's case, is that we all know that a mediocre white guy can get elected president.  Neither Clinton nor Obama can get away with mediocrity.  Obama is succeeding at convincing people that he is special; Clinton isn't.

January 6, 2008 8:05 PM

pbriley said:

Cue the duhhhh!

Let's see, one person has been attacked for a solid 16 years. Why? Mostly because she wasn't your typical political spouse. She was more like the rest of us, a working person who had spent the last 20 years, at that point,  working for social justice and children.

Another person 16 years ago was an organizer on the streets of a major city for a union. No one had ever heard of him. How about 10 years ago? Five years ago? Outside of Chicago, anybody, anybody?

Now, all of a sudden some middle class guy shows up and shouts the word hope and change around, the media are all with one voice of love.

If you were the first person would you like the media very much either?

I will guarantee to you that Michelle Obama has seen nothing yet. Her career is fair game as far as I am concerned now. Blow back is a bitch!

Enjoy the love while you can cause it will soon be over. Come November, January will look down right tropical.

January 6, 2008 8:09 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

I think Obama was pretty well known on the east coast for being the first African American to head the law review at Harvard - no small feat in the middle of the Federalist Society days in that school. I remember that. It's not nothing.  

Some "middle class guy"?  What does that mean?

Obama's appeal is not that he's shouting hope. It's his natural demeanor, his clarity, his moral authority, his promise of newness  -  fair or not.  No one ever said life was fair and I find it a perfectly valid set of things to vote for.  

I love Senator Clinton and I don't think she's losing because there's anything wrong with her. I could do without her equivocating problem and I'm sick to death of the organized hatred on the roght for her, but frankly, this isn't about her. People aren't voting *against* her, they are voting *for* Obama.  She can't overcome Obama's unique talents meeting with the perfect time to use them.  

January 6, 2008 8:26 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

Anyone attacking Michelle Obama will look utterly ridiculous, ugly and desperate and rightly so - fire away, that way we'll win by 25% instead of 15%.

January 6, 2008 8:27 PM

ralphnelle said:

I don't have any patience for this kind of sour grapes stuff, mostly because it reminds me of myself in 2004.  Hillary has been outplayed. End of story. She's been in a tailspin since October 30th, DESPITE BEING THE MEDIA FAVORITE FOR THE ENTIRE SUMMER, because of her and Penn's lousy play calling.

I feel sympathy for the Hillary supporters out there. It's never fun when your guy or gal, the one you think best suited for the job, loses badly. But it happened. Why not look long and hard at the poor campaigning as the primary reason? This "the media took us down" stuff is just silly, especially given the heavy lifting Obama had to do between August and November to get back in this thing.

January 6, 2008 8:45 PM

pbriley said:

Please, please explain "unique talents." I have yet to find one thing "unique" about him. The one thing you always hear, outside of the hope mantra, is his great oratory skills. Well to use a Lloyd Bentsen line, slight altered (for those of you Obama supporters just Google it) I saw a great orator at a convention and you Mr. Obama are okay. "A shining city on a hill" was still the best convention speech ever.

Other than that, what is his skill. He is able to bring the world together? Got evidence?

He is able to bring everyone together to pass legislation? Got evidence?

He can inspire people? Get a grip. Anyone over the age of 40 can remember lots of inspiration people, and I have heard that there have been quite a few through out the ages.

George Bush inspired a lot of young people to go down to Florida and intimidate the ballot counters. Inspiration isn't that great.

Just to cap a walk down memory lane: Where is the beef? (Again Obama supporters, just Google it)

"What did I mean by middle class?" Obama was raised middle class. Sorry to disappoint you all who thought he was brought up poor  and fought his way out of adversity. Did I ruin another one of his "unique" talents?

January 6, 2008 8:54 PM

ChanRobt said:

pbriley is correct on one score.  Obama is middle class in upbrining, indeed.  He attended Punahoe, Honolulu's fancy prep-school.  As he would have to.  The public schools there, as in most major American cities, are unuseable.

January 6, 2008 9:01 PM

mjhollerich said:

One thing and one thing ONLY matters:  we (I speak presumptively, as to Democrats) need a winner.  Got that?  A winner.  And Hillary is sure to give the Republicans the one thing they want most: a candidate that can succeed in polarizing the electorate and making us forget W.  Obama seems preternaturally gifted on precisely this point.

And winning is all that I care about come November.

For the record, I like the comment above that Hillary might have missed her moment in 2004 because she decided to play it safe.  In retrospect, maybe a bad call.

Off the record:  if pbriley is who I think he is, he should drop me a line.

January 6, 2008 9:46 PM

spurious said:

Hmm.

Clinton makes a fair call when she challenges Obama to specify how he will bring about the change he refers to. He is, on the surface, big on idea, light on detail, and the idea is hardly new.

Trouble is for Clinton, Obama's end to politics as usual, or whatever he calls it, isn't about a five-point plan, it's about him. And with every new convert to the cause he proves it. I've never seen a man who could make frustrated condescension look so agreeable. Hell, I think we even like the condescension, because it brings the man back to earth. And he has a way of making that condescension seem like it's directed at everyone but you.

On the matter of Clinton's gender, I think the simplest way to look at it is to pose this question: name five women you might easily describe as 'charismatic'. Then name five men you could safely describe as 'shrill'. This sort of bias is hardwired--though that's no reason not to try to overcome it.

I really don’t know why Edwards is bothering this time around. I’m not sure there’s a call for a six-of-one-half-a-dozen-of-the-other candidate.

Richardson, meanwhile, is hilarious, with a great line in repeating or gainsaying what the person before him just said, depending on which way the wind is blowing and from which orifice.

January 6, 2008 9:53 PM

emh77 said:

<i> Now, all of a sudden some middle class guy shows up and shouts the word hope and change around, the media are all with one voice of love. </i>

Yes, Obama grew up in the middle class. He's also a black man who grew up without a father and went on to accomplish a stunning amount in a short time. You make yourself look silly when you denigrate him.

January 6, 2008 10:00 PM

spurious said:

Oh--and Clinton's got to stop attacking him on health care. Obama's the one who has found the unassailable position (everyone will get it but nobody has to), and for heaven's sake the thing she needs least to remind the assembled is that his plan covers all children. It's hardly going to pull the rug out from beneath him.

January 6, 2008 10:06 PM

jet said:

I'm with both liebig and ralphnelle

From ralphnelle's comments, Jon, how can you argue Hillary is getting a shit deal from the media when she has been on or near the top in the polls _nationally_  as long as she has and even into NH?  It doesn't make sense to argue that.  You just can't do that with the media against you.

From Pollster.com

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, this poll through 12/30/07 show's Hillary in the lead nationally all year.

www.pollster.com/08-US2-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

January 6, 2008 10:43 PM

kgrant1054 said:

Pbriley raises a particulary interesting notion in this debate, notably that those who support Obama are either young or ignorant of the last twenty years of political game playing.  My guess is that many who post on these discussions are rather savvy political junkies, who really don't need the condescension expressed in his/her posts.  

For me, since 1984 (my first presidential election) I have been waiting for a Democrat to emerge that I felt that I could vote 'for' without major reservations.  Yes, yes, I happend to be one of those Hart-Tsongas-Bradley delusional types, never quite cottoning on to the notion of electability.  In this election cycle, I had rather hoped that Russ Feingold would get into the race.  Shockingly, it didn't happen.  Thus, I have to kick about to find a candidate that doesn't make the entrance into the voting booth a grind.

I have yet to make up my mind, but I lean (rather strongly) toward Obama because he may actually find a way to govern once elected.  To me that is far more important an issue than electability.  I simply don't see, with all of the long history between the Clintons and the Republicans, how a President Clinton could govern effectively.  

Is that fair?  Not at all.  But it is real, and that cannot be avoided.

January 6, 2008 10:46 PM

primwallflow said:

I didn't think Obama's quip was mean-spirited at all (he made one to Richardson minutes later in a similar tone... both were pretty light-hearted).

And beyond that, while I do agree that there's a double-standard in our society when it comes to gender, in the media that pendulum swung both ways for Hillary. I mean, how many thousands of words of primary coverage did the MSM devote to her "inevitability" and the prospect of a female president? How many GOP mailers, ideological books, and polemical talk show rants endeavored to "stop Hillary"? Don't forget, that was a pretty compelling narrative for a while. And if her candidacy dies, it will have ended not because Obama complained about his media coverage or played the race card, but because he had a better organization and was simply judged the better candidate. I suppose Obama was in a unique position to neuter Hillary's fallback strategy of playing the gender card (In the debate last night, as Hillary was talking about what a momentous change having a woman in the White House would be, it was impossible not to notice, y'know, a BLACK MAN standing two places down from her), but I feel no regret about her failed opportunity to play that card.

I deeply respect many of Hillary Clinton's accomplishments, but she just isn't cut out to be the feminist trailblazer her rhetoric describes: that is, I don't think she would fundamentally change the way people think about female leadership in this country. The country, fairly or not, has already passed judgment on Hillary Rodham Clinton, and while much of her negativity is not her fault, some of it certainly is, and, besides that, she failed to rise above her own unique handicaps as a candidate. It's not as if HRC was the only candidate bringing her own baggage. Obama had to overcome an experience deficit, not to mention rumors of being a Muslim, a name that rhymes with "Osama", and a MSM that quickly wrote him off after a brief infatuation and consistently declared him the loser in the summer debates. And he didn't have the institutional Democratic machine behind him.

So I'm not shedding a tear for HRC. She had setbacks, yes, but her advantages as a candidate should have been enough to overcome them. Instead, she squandered them on an arrogant strategy and a sales pitch that fell flat. Her decline is entirely her own responsibility.

January 6, 2008 11:04 PM

purcellneil said:

I don't think Obama was mean to Hillary, or in any way putting her down, in his "likable enough" comment.  I'm sure a more gallant comment might have been found, but it seemed to be intended as a friendly comment.

I thought she was marvelous in her response to Edwards, so maybe I am missing something in both cases.  

Neil

January 6, 2008 11:11 PM

liebig said:

Again, I agree that there are sexist attitudes that make Clinton's job as a candidate harder, and you can see them in the way that word "shrill" gets thrown around.  But she has bigger problems than that, just like Romney has bigger problems than anti-Mormon prejudice.

Apparently the Clinton campaign tried to rationalize the Iowa loss by portraying Iowa as being biased against female candidates, and pointed out that Iowa had never elected a woman to high office.  Well, news flash: Iowa's never elected a black person to high office, either.  In fact, Iowa is fifty percent female, and two percent black.  You tell me which prejudice you'd rather be struggling against.

Again, she's losing to a black guy named Barack Obama, and you're attributing her loss to prejudice?  Gimme a break!

January 6, 2008 11:14 PM

jacksondyer said:

It looks like the debate is all for nought.

Democratic voters are being swayed by the perception of who is a winner rather than by who is the best cadidate. Looks like the media has won again.

This is how we ended up with Bush eight years ago.

January 6, 2008 11:46 PM

adamvaught said:

Pbriley,

I’m not sure why I am responding to your comment. You didn’t really make an argument, more than you made snide comments and threw a question mark after them.

“I saw a great orator at a convention and you Mr. Obama are okay.”  

Agree to disagree. And I have most of the country on my side. Yes, Mario Cuomo was masterful in the 1984 Keynote address; but so was Obama in 2004. They are irrelevant to each other. I don’t picture the convention floor erupting in a chant of “ERA, ERA, ERA” in 2004. And I doubt anyone would have been worried about red-states and blue-states in 1984. Obama’s 2004 speech was masterful, not just in delivery, but in how it articulated what most Democrats felt; just as did Cuomo in 1984. Perhaps you liked Cuomo’s message better, and that is fine, but to declare that Obama as “okay” by comparing him to an also amazing speech twenty-years prior is pure sophistry.  I defy you to name another keynote speech--hell, any convention speech--that is in the same league as Cuomo in 1984 and Obama in 2004. If you can, great. Or, to use your rhetorical device, Got evidence?

“Other than that, what is his skill. He is able to bring the world together? Got evidence?”

Yeah, actually. When he went to Africa he was treaded like a Head of State. I live in Springfield, IL. When Obama announced for President, there were news crews from Asia, Europe, and Africa. A local news report asked a reporter from Japan, “Why are you here?” The Japanese reporter responded, “because this is the biggest story in the world.”

“He is able to bring everyone together to pass legislation? Got evidence?”

Yes. I’ll let the Washington Post do the work:

www.washingtonpost.com/.../AR2008010303303.html.

“He can inspire people? Get a grip. Anyone over the age of 40 can remember lots of inspiration people, and I have heard that there have been quite a few through out the ages.”

Here is where you continue your attack on the young, which began with “Well to use a Lloyd Bentsen line, slight altered (for those of you Obama supporters just Google it).” Ah yes, every Obama supporter is 18 with no knowledge of history in your mind; but at least you give them credit enough to use Google: not once, but twice. To paraphrase Bill Richardson (since we are paraphrasing former Clinton cabinet officials—pssst, I didn’t need Google for that) what is wrong with inspiration?

The presidency isn’t just a bureaucratic position that entry into is based on time served and good work on reports. It is the leadership position of our country; our head of state. Just because there are people who were once inspirational does not mean that such a person is not now needed. To dismiss inspiration is to dismiss the greatest moments in our history. This history is cast by those who challenged what was considered proper when it was not considered their time to say so.

“Just to cap a walk down memory lane: Where is the beef? (Again Obama supporters, just Google it).”

Oh, you’re so clever: a Wendy’s ad. Now that you’ve brought up Cuomo’s keynote speech and the Wendy’s ad Mondale used to beat Hart--again, no Google needed--I’m wondering if you haven’t been time-warped in from 1984. I guess this is why you are so opposed to Obama: he shatters everything you know about this country and its politics.

Every so often in this county, we decide we want to take a different direction; not just in governmental policy, but in the government itself. I believe the country is at such a crossroad. Now is the time for a great orator who can inspire this country to believe in our country again; to bring people together to solve the big problems, finally. Will Obama succeed if given the chance? I don’t know. It is a daunting challenge; the biggest challenge facing an incoming President since FDR. But I don’t think Hillary is that person. She is a great public servant. But we need more than that. We need inspiration. That is what Obama offers, and more imporatantly, can deliver.

January 7, 2008 12:00 AM

devman95 said:

I agree whole-heartedly with adamvaught on this. Obama offers the country a chance to move forward on a new path. Clinton could not have had more political resources at her disposal (and let's not write her off yet, while all the 'mo is with Obama there are too many smart people working for Team Clinton--including the candidate herself--to say even two opening round losses will sink her campaign) The bottom line is while Obama and Clinton offer a similar agenda for America, I believe that he has the greater chance of uniting public opinion and getting something accomplished. I also believe that an inspirational Obama campaign that reaches out to new voters can bring along some coattails that will widen Democratic majorities in Congress. Ultimately, it's about winning and then governing. Obama offers a greater hope for this country on both scores.

January 7, 2008 12:54 AM

ethelfrog3 said:

To jacksondyer, et al, who keep rehashing Sean Wilentz's argument about Obama's likability being no different from Bush's...

One of the biggest reasons why I deplored Bush in 2000 was because here was a candidate who quite obviously was running on nothing but his last name, the expectation being that the base would practically faint with nostalgic joy over seeing another Bush run for the White House.

Can you see where I'm going now with Senator Clinton?  

Look, I'm aware that Senator Clinton has obvious differences from our present Commander in Chief...but the strategy is essentially the same.  Bully everyone into thinking that she "deserves" the nomination simply because of some sort of dynastic privilege.  That is a much more compelling analogy that the Wilentz analogy between Obama and Bush, and it's one of the main reasons I'm not supporting Senator Clinton.  Not because of her gender, but because of the Bushian implication that the Democratic Party belongs to people with the magical last name.

THAT is what brought us Bush.

January 7, 2008 1:26 AM

psantillana said:

I was horrified when I read what Obama said - "likeable enough" because it sounded like a snark, but when  I saw it it didn't seem like he meant it as a snark at all, it wasn't what I was picturing.  So I'm not sure it really was that.  I can't imagine he would say something so mean, also.  So because he;s so very likeable, and I like him, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, ha ha. But I wasn't before I saw the clip, at least.

January 7, 2008 3:31 AM

JackR said:

I can testify that Obama's appeal is multi-generational.  As a 70 year old who was inspired by President Kennedy to join the Peace Corps in 1962 and stayed "clean for Gene" in 1968, I am beyond thrilled by Obama's emergence as a potential President.  Americans are hungry for real leadership that inspires us to reach for our best, that appeals to "the better angels of our nature".  The major take-away so far of the long campaign is that Obama has it and Hillary does not.

Walt Whitman once wrote: "My words are nothing, my gestures everything.  Who touches me touches a man."  I believe we are in the process of being touched.

January 7, 2008 10:25 AM

tarfon said:

A few thoughts, probably none of them tremendously original.

To those promoting Obama because he offers the country "a chance to move forward on a new path" (Devman's formulation, though others say much the same thing):  Whether this is attractive should depend on whether you think it is realistic that the country or its political system could really adopt such a new path.  I thought Obama's line about "we are not red states and blue states; we are the _United_States_ of America" was thrilling as an articulation of the Democratic Party's belief in patriotism and in a government that serves the whole country; I'm not convinced that it's a realistic prescription for governing when there are real and entrenched interests out there.

To those focusing on charisma, and on HRC's supposed lack of it.  If you go back to the early days of the (Bill) Clinton Administration, I seem to recall that many people, and precisely the domestic policy liberals, had intense devotion to Hillary, who was seen as the consistent devoted liberal in the Administration.  It may be that this devotion is different from charisma, but it would be interesting to hear folks address that comparison.

To those who suggest that Obama is somehow immune to R detractors in the general election:  Yes, his being a medal-winning veteran was what immunized President Kerry from R attacks four years ago.  There's a long time until November, and no one is immune from the other party's attacks.

January 7, 2008 11:11 AM

pbriley said:

As a Hart delegate in 1984 who was on the floor for the "Shining City on the Hill speech" I can tell you the electricity in the room was amazing.

I couldn't stand Walter Mondale. I worked for Hart from 1983 - 1987. I believe in "new blood," "change", etc. all the buzz words of every election. I also worked for Al Gore in 1988. You see some of us have been there, done that.

In answer to a question above, how about "Cross of Gold."

I have worked in this business for 25 years, most of that time for candidates extremely similar to Obama. Let's just say I am not impressed. Both Gary Hart (read the book, check out his extremely extensive service in the Senate) and Al Gore (no explanation needed) were in the forefront of creative, long term thinking for this country. Obama has done virtually nothing in the Senate. I have seen absolutely nothing from him about the future except parroting some one else. Where is original thought?

To the person who thinks he knows me, sorry it is not me, I am female.

This is going to be a very long election. All of you who think Barrack is immune from the usual campaign feathering, just wait. He and Michelle are in for a bumpy ride. If his quip about likability is his mean streak, man he better get better. I hope you guys are all correct about his kevlar and life time transparency because a fine tooth comb is nothing on the tools the Republicans have in their arsenal.

Good luck, you are going to need it.

I honestly don't see much difference between the blank slate of Bush and Obama. Write what you want on them.

January 7, 2008 11:45 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

pbriley -Ah, someone in the business, no wonder. It really shows - threatening to attack Michelle Obama as some sort of revenge because your candidate or cynical thought process or whatever you think should be valued (rather than what the American people want) says it all.

Your candidate did not make the sale in *this* set of circumstances in *this* era. That is not through some failing on everyone else's part, some fundamental point everyone but you missed.   If you don't see a difference between Bush and Obama, then it's because you don't want to.  The only similarity is that they are both human.

That slime strategy is working really well for the Romney campaign, maybe you're right - we should all just turn in to him and go with the status quo techniques like that.

Things change pbriley, political cultures can and do evolve. My Texas right wing Christian 70-something family can't wait to vote for him.  Try saying that about Cuomo or Mondale or any of the other ancients you keep bringing up.

The Republicans are a ridiculous disaster area with no credibility, a destroyed brand, half our money and turnout (except for McCain, who I adore) and I refuse to quiver in fear in the face of Rush Limbaugh and the rest of the Hate Machine.  But please, be my guest,  I think we're all a bit done with that.

I said before and I mean it - I hope that exact slime strategy starts up as soon as possible - all the freeper racism and muslim-baiting too, bring it on - ugly as it is, the sooner the better, I can't wait for Michelle's response. I want to get the percentage that Obama is going to win by as high as possible.  

January 7, 2008 1:16 PM

LISAH said:

So -- I no longer have a horse in the race -- will vote for whoever gets the Dem nomination, with no enthusiasm and probably great reluctance since it's likely to be Obama or Clinton. If Repubs nominate McCain, who is clearly capable, even tho I disagree with him on almost everything in terms of issues, it'll be harder to vote for the Democrat. But I'll do it; Repblicans have proved over the past few decades that they don't deserve to govern in a democracy.  Dems have been marginally better, but just marginally -- and have shown they are incapable of standing up to Republican crap.

Meanwhile, the Democrats continue their suicide mission. Chances of either Clinton or Obama getting elected once the Republican smear machine gets going, are -- what? chancy? -- and likelihood of the smear machine letting either one govern effectively are just as chancy. Democrats have to grow some balls and show they can fight back - and they seem a long way from doing so. And this as the Republicans are imploding. If Dems lose this election, they may as well curl up and surrender openly.

Yeah, Wandreycer1, times and cultures change -- but those times and that culture ain't here yet. pbriley has it right re her questioning of Obama's credentials. He's hype. To me, so is Clinton.

Sigh -- on to New Hampshire.

January 7, 2008 2:32 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

We'll see - I think those times are here :

www.republicansforobama.org

And as far as that scary old slime machine, it's looking pretty pathetic, like Oz behind the curtain frantically trying to keep the illusion up while the smoke pours out and the pistons explode. I'm not afraid of that and I can't think of anyone who is anymore.  They got no money, they got no message, they got no game.  They are so easily refusted, it's like fish in a barrel.  Stop being afraid of ghosts.

January 7, 2008 3:08 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

From the comments section of the Republicans for Obama website:

"This is my first post here, so I'll profile myself as a fiscal conservative and leaning-right on social issues. I see a man of outstanding character, he presents his intellect in modest fashion and is sincere about what he believes. What it all boils down to for me is finding a president from either side of the political spectrum who can be a guiding figure for the entire country. We need to be serious about voting for a President, and quite honestly, the entire field from both parties is an absolute joke, except this man. This even goes against my own rule of not voting for candidates from the legislative branch of politics; I see him as someone who breaks the mold. If America doesn't use its votes to finally wipe the slate clean of the political dynasties, cronyism, bureaucratic in-fighting and life-term politicians, we are destined to be a failed state, plain and simple. Its time to be a country again, and political disagreements aside, Obama is the candidate I have been looking for."

January 7, 2008 3:12 PM

JosephCuomo said:

Wandrey, adamvaught, and JackR-

I saw Obama's victory speech Thursday night, and was moved by it. I was also impressed by the man's poise. He's relaxed on the podium the way Roger Federer is relaxed on the courts. And in this way, certainly, he is nothing like George W. Bush.

And, as Adam points out, B.O. actually has accomplished something in his political career, though most of these accomplishments were realized in local (Illinois) government.

But there was one thing that troubled me in Obama's victory speech, and in susbequent comments in NH: that we, as a people, shouldn't dwell on the world as it is, but on the world as it should be.

I despise George W. and I very much like Barrack O., but this kind of talk does bring the two of them together in this regard: one of the great, disastrous flaws in Bush's Middle East strategy is that it appears to based upon a notion of how the world SHOULD be, rather than how it actually is.

For just one instance, Bush thinks the Iraqis (and everybody else) would be better off with a democratically elected government, and so he turns a blind-eye to the realities of the region, and invades Iraq. We wind up with an Iraqi government elected by one portion of the population (the Shiites) that would like to see another portion of the population (the Sunnis) dead.

There are other examples, but I think many of us on this thread can agree that Bush is a wacko. My point here has to do with the particular way in which his wingnuttiness is supported by his idealism. Yes, his idealism.

For the problem with Bush is that he doesn't respect the limits reality imposes upon us, via human nature, limits the founders respected--and anticipated, via checks and balances, laws and restrictions, separation of powers.

Now I'm not suggesting that Obama is blind to the virtues of the Constitution, but his rhetoric has been tacking toward waters which I find troubling. Here's what B.O. said yesterday, in response to remarks HRC had made in the most recent debate: "One of my opponents said, you know, 'Stop feeding the American people false hopes about what can be done. We need a reality check.' False hopes? About what we can do? What's that mean? What kind of message is that to send to the American people? We're going to focus on the constraints of what's possible instead of open it up, bust through them?. . . We don't need a leader telling us what we can't do. We need our leaders to inspire us to believe in what we can accomplish."

Yes, Obama is inspirational, and yes it is fine to focus on what we can accomplish. But it is also imperative to keep in mind precisely "the contraints of what's possible."

Which is one of the reasons, for instance, that nominating Hillary would be electoral suicide for the Dems. She is revlied on the right in a way that would rally that party during the general election, and she is also reviled on the left, most specifically for her vote on the Joint Resolution on Iraq.

All of which is to say, I would vote for Obama, in a primary or a general election, but some of his rhetoric does trouble me. And given the hell W. has made of Iraq, I would prefer someone with considerably more foreign policy experience  (someone, for instance, like Gore). But, realistically, it may be that Obama is the best chance the Dems have for victory in November.

January 7, 2008 3:56 PM

JosephCuomo said:

As for Hillary getting a raw deal from the press, this is just nonsense. As has been pointed out above, she was the presumed Dem front-runner for the better part of a year, and this presumption was enshrined as conventional wisdom by none other than the press.

January 7, 2008 4:00 PM

butchie b said:

Oh, for God's sake!  As much as I try to stay out of y'alls fight, give me a break.  Yes, BHO is an honorable man, very bright, extremely articulate.  And any thought that he can "wipe the slate clean of dynasties, cronyism" all that crap above is jaw-droppingly naive.  Dangerously so.  The person who truly believes this sets himself up for disappointment. No one can do this - NO ONE.

Our politics does not admit of such a person, and the political forces at work are far larger than ANY politician.  It will not be done, not in the foreseeable future.

So OK, vote for Obama, all those so-called Republicans for Obama. And I know there are a few Dems who will vote for McCain if given the chance.  But just as I fail to understand why a liberal would vote for a rock-solid conservative (on 98% of issues) like McCain, I cannot imagine voting for a man who, so far as we know his views (and we know precious little), opposes the vast majority of things that I believe in.

Oh, and Wandrey, were we to nominate McCain, the attack machine would still be there.  You see, first, we want to win.

January 7, 2008 4:00 PM

LISAH said:

Yes, Wandreycer1 -- the Republican attack machine is not a ghost. It's made up of real live political operatives who are ginning things up. You haven't seen ugly yet....

January 7, 2008 4:16 PM

dianede said:

"And as far as that scary old slime machine, it's looking pretty pathetic, like Oz behind the curtain frantically trying to keep the illusion up while the smoke pours out and the pistons explode. I'm not afraid of that and I can't think of anyone who is anymore.  They got no money, they got no message, they got no game.  They are so easily refusted, it's like fish in a barrel.  Stop being afraid of ghosts."

Oh please. looks that way every four years during the primaries. Kerry's people were highly confident the slime machine was broken, too. They're not using it right now, they're settling their own nomination and waiting to see who the Democrats put up.

I'm not afraid of ghosts. But I've been told the machine is dead during every primary season since second Reagan. It never ia.

January 7, 2008 4:45 PM

markgpearse said:

It is very frustrating to me that this whole ******* nomination was apparently decided in Iowa, even before NH votes.  I am a Clinton supporter in Chicago (there are a lot of us...especially those of us who look at Obama's record of "Change" in Springfield) and am effectively being told I don't even need to vote on Super Tuesday.

I thought Obama was very un-cool and extremely condescending with his you're likeable enough remark

At this point I am just hoing that McCain is the Republic [not Republican :-)] nominee so I can vote Republic for the first time in my life next November after the wheels come off the Obama campaign.  The Rezko affair is going to make Whitewater look like a walk in the park.

Mark

January 7, 2008 4:50 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

Meh - rigor mortis, I still say.  

These people, Obama or no Obama, are useless - this isn't the days of Kerry - there simply is no comparison of this era to 2000 or 2004. None.  The slimers can cackle and heckle and attempt to be very vicious and yucky and awful.  Ooooo, I shiver in fear.

And we can all have a good laugh at them, with their 5 bucks in the bank and lousy turn-out.  You don't believe me?  Check out what a joke Guiliani's campaign has become - I guess saying socialized medicine-socialized medicine, 9/11 9/11, wuss Dems wuss Dems over and over doesn't cut it anymore.  Ths is just Rush Limbaugh stuffed in to campaign speak.  They are done.

If there is any credibility at all left to the winger slime machine after 8 years of Bush's unbelievable incompetence, destruction and hypocrisy, then I will eat my hat - with salt and pepper.  But I'm certainly not going to hide in a corner saying "gee, maybe more tax cuts for millionares aren't such a bad idea after all!" over and over so Anne Coulter won't call me names.  

It's time to grow a spine people.

January 7, 2008 8:17 PM

msigman said:

Hillary Clinton is about to crash with a loud and humiliating thud.  I think Mr Cohn is right to express a bit of human sympathy and to note that the press was gunning more to celebrate her failure than to analyze her candidacy.  The questions Tim Russert asked her at the famous October debate were designed be lethal no matter what she said, and the vitriolic expression on his face betrayed obvious personal vitriol.   Mr Cohn is absolutely right to note the role of the press in her fall, without overplaying it or excusing her own political weaknesses.  BTW I listen to Obama's speeches and I hear empty cliche and unappealing self regard.  I do not hear the masterful oratory celebrated in all the fawning reviews.  I am not sure the country will be better off with the new JFK simulacrum.

January 7, 2008 10:45 PM

spurious said:

JosephCuomo said:

'As for Hillary getting a raw deal from the press, this is just nonsense. As has been pointed out above, she was the presumed Dem front-runner for the better part of a year, and this presumption was enshrined as conventional wisdom by none other than the press.'

I have no idea whether Hillary has been given a raw deal by the press; that would take more serious hours of analysis than any of us have time for. But your logic is shaky at best.

Hillary has been the presumed front-runner for a while, true, but there are ways of saying that and ways of saying that. If I use the legend of Clinton's inevitability to talk about her ruthless campaign machine and the candidate's overconfidence, I am hardly painting her in the most positive of lights.

In any case, I've seen many more instances of--

* The media saying the media is saying Clinton is inevitable

* The media saying the Clinton campaign has said it is inevitable

* The media saying the media is no longer saying that Clinton is inevitable

--than I ever have of anyone from the pundit end of the business actually having the balls to make a falsifiable claim such as that Clinton is inevitable. This is the closed time loop of political coverage. No-one can be sure where the thought first came from, if indeed it ever did.

January 7, 2008 11:18 PM

JosephCuomo said:

spurious-

I'd like to respond to your post above, but I'm afraid it's not really clear what point you're trying to make.

If, as you seem to suggest, "The media [has been] saying that the media is saying Clinton is inevitable."  Well, then, it seems to support the point I made earlier that, for more than a year, the press had annointed HRC as the presumed (or inevitable) Dem nominee.

But when you say that you haven't seen "anyone from the pundit end of the business actually having the balls to make a falsifiable claim such as that Clinton is inevitable," I'm afraid it just isn't clear what you're trying to say.

January 8, 2008 3:22 PM

spurious said:

JosephCuomo:

The stuff about punditry was a secondary contention, forget about it. Just a bugbear of mine.

My main point was simply that it is possible for the media to say 'Hillary Clinton is inevitable' and to give Hillary Clinton a raw deal at the same time. The media may celebrate her status as front-runner, remain neutral on her status as front-runner, lament her status as front-runner, or anything in between.

No doubt it has done all three, but to what extent each is difficult to say in the absence of hundreds of hours of analysis. I don't buy into either narrative without a comprehensive and unbiased review of the evidence, and I don't think we're going to get that any time soon. Anyone with the time and inclination would most certainly have one of two axes to grind.

--Rodney

January 8, 2008 10:08 PM

JosephCuomo said:

Rodney-

Thanks for the clarification. I guess my point is that the many members of the press, in annointing HRC the inevitable front-runner (as they did for the better part of a year), were treating her well, very well, simply by seeing her (and describing her) that way.

In other words, even if some reporters or commentators suggested that they didn't like the fact that she was the front-runner, they were still taking her seriously enough to place her at the top of the Dem field of candidates--and to help keep her there, until she came in third in Iowa.

Hard to see how that's a raw deal. . .

January 9, 2008 8:31 AM