TNR BLOGS

July 04, 2009 | 6:29 PM
July 04, 2009 | 11:58 AM
July 04, 2009 | 11:32 AM

March 09, 2009 | 5:19 PM
March 09, 2009 | 5:16 PM
January 07, 2009 | 12:20 PM

July 01, 2009 | 10:33 PM
June 30, 2009 | 8:42 AM
June 29, 2009 | 9:09 AM

July 26, 2008 | 2:24 PM
July 23, 2008 | 1:55 PM
July 17, 2008 | 3:56 PM

July 03, 2009 | 10:13 PM
July 02, 2009 | 12:57 PM
July 01, 2009 | 7:02 PM
COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
30.11.2007
Rudy's Big Problem

Ramesh Ponnuru writes:

I have always thought that Giuliani could not win a two-man primary. I no longer believe that. He could beat Huckabee even in a two-man race. He can root for Huckabee to take out all his stronger competitors.

Ross Douthat agrees. Meanwhile, Dick Morris echoes the emerging consensus that Romney and Huckabee are fighting to see who will go up against Rudy on February 5th, a.k.a. Super Tuesday.

I am perfectly willing to believe that a lot can change between now and the start of voting on January 3rd. Giuliani could even surge in Iowa. But if he performs as badly in the first few states as it looks like he might, I am not at all convinced that he will even be one of the two (if there are only two) candidates left standing in early February. In Iowa, he'll be lucky to finish a distant third. In New Hampshire, he could finish second or as low as fourth (if Huckabee wins Iowa). In South Carolina he could fall to as low as fifth. 

We might not get a chance to prove my hypothesis, but I think that if Rudy comes in third in Iowa, third in New Hampshire and, say, third in South Carolina, it won't matter who has won. In other words, it could be a mess, with Huckabee and Romney and McCain all doing well, and I still think Rudy's campaign will be effectively over. His support nationally is very, very soft, and the idea that it isn't going to collapse even if GOP voters haven't coalesced around a clear altenative strikes me as unlikely. Moreover, it's not a good sign that everywhere the campaigns have "engaged", Rudy is trailing, in some cases badly. If Giuliani wants to win the GOP nomination, he can't count on a de facto National Primary Day to rescue him.

--Isaac Chotiner

Posted: Friday, November 30, 2007 12:06 AM with 14 comment(s)

Comments

You must be logged-in to comment.

Not a subscriber? Click here to get a digital or print and digital subscription to The New Republic!

Bulbman1066 said:

Say it isn't so.  Rudi is the perfect candidate for the common sense majority - people who don't agree with the religious right that the world is six thousand years old and that there is a big bully up in the sky who will punish us if we tolerate homosexuality. People who understand in their hearts that religion is socially useful but shouldn’t be taken too seriously.

People who at the same time disagree with the left's belief the country would be a great place if we all got down on our knees and begged the Islamo-fascists for forgiveness and gave them the go-ahead to kill those evil Zionists in Israel.

Name one issue where Rudi is wrong.   You can't.

November 30, 2007 3:26 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

I can't name one issue that matters where Rudy has the first idea what he is talking about (health care, Middle East anything, energy independence, entitlements).  He's also sleazy, hires crooks and pedophiles, is insane and immature.  Other than that - a great guy.

November 30, 2007 7:44 AM

virginiacentrist said:

rudy needs hillary to win Iowa to refocus the debate on electability. otherwise, it's gonna be tough.

November 30, 2007 8:01 AM

Rhubarbs said:

Let's hope Isaac is right, because Rudy is the only Republican candidate who really scares me as a prospective president. Not that I believe any of the others are likely to be good presidents, and not to the extent that certain others scare me as a candidate in terms of their chances of beating any Democrat, but the degree to which I believe Rudy would be an historically terrible president and a danger to the republic is really quite high. I'd honestly rather have a third Bush term than let Rudy occupy the White House. Events conspired to keep the other two so-bad-they-would-be-a-danger-to-the-nation Republican candidates out of the race (my own commonwealth's Allen and Gilmore), so we can only hope that Republicans are sensible enough to see the New York mayor for the Chavez-in-waiting, Putin-wannabe that he is.

(And for the record, it's Huckabee who scares me as a Republican candidate. I actually suspect he has the best chances of being an acceptably good president if elected, which is a comforting thought, since I honestly don't think he can be beaten if the Republicans nominate him.)

November 30, 2007 8:29 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

Agreed on everything you said Rhubarb, great post.  I'm comforted by Rudy's numbers so far in Iowa and NH and with all of this sleaze trickling out every day, I have to hope those last minute undecideds finally get that this man has terrible judgement and no grasp at all of the issues - does anyone out there care how patronizing Rudy is to them as primary voters?

Huckabee is a very nice man, I could tolerate him I guess and McCain would be fine with me, but Rudy?  No thanks, I did my time with him in New York and every day without him, New York gets better.

Stop any ten New Yorkers walking down the street and ask what they a) think of Rudy in general b) think of him as President and nine of them will immediately furrow their brow in anger and disgust before even opening their mouths.  And if people out there think it's only latte sipping Columbia professors or Sharpton wanna be's, all I can say is - you wish!

November 30, 2007 9:18 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

PS Somewhere right now, Donna is smiling.

November 30, 2007 10:00 AM

virginiacentrist said:

Wandreycer1:

You might be right...though his approval rating 6 weeks after 9-11 in NYC was 69%.

November 30, 2007 10:01 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

Oh yeah VC, I forgot about that.  A friend of mine needled me recently "Do you remember when Rudy wanted to change the city charter and stay in office the week after 9/11 and you AGREED with him?"  I vaguely rmember, through my raging PTSD, sleepless nights and four night a week tequilla benders - thinking something along those lines, something about not wanting any change right then.  It's all a bit fuzzy.  

Scratch the surface and you'd know that half this city is *still* secretly taking meds or getting treatment for PTSD (many are much better).  You'd find the secret pockets of Wall Street honchos who just recently started flying again, burly construction workers who won't take the subway, et cetera.  Six weeks after 9/11 was right about when I had a full night's sleep without a nightmare. One.  Six weeks post 9/11 was right about when the home-made posters of missing people stopped being tacked to the door of my apartment building.  

You'll forgive us if we were a bit nervous about change right.  While the poll probably was valid, it doesn't tell even a small piece of the story.  

November 30, 2007 10:23 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

Plus, as I've said before and probably should again: through all my Rudy bashing I know that he was very good after 9/11.  I have a hard time picturing any New York mayor sitting in that seat that day being anything less, but I'll give Rudy credit for a strong performance those weeks,

If you think about it, 69% isn't even that high for what happened.  Even Bush was at 90%,  Rudy could walk on water and any people of color would still vote against him.  If Rudy made it to the general somehow he'd get half the 9% African American vote that Bush got, if that.

November 30, 2007 10:27 AM

blackton said:

vacentrist, 6 weeks after 9/11? what is it now, 6 years after 9/11?  I am with Rhubarbs and Wandrey on this, Rudy is a genuinely scary guy who thrives on crisis and confrontation. Those would be great qualities for a Fire Chief or Navy Seal, not what I want for a President.

And where did this bulbman come from? seems like a pretty dim bulb to me. (sorry, couldn't resist)

Today's NYTimes has an article about how Rudy plays fast and loose with facts to a degree not even approached by everyone else. And he is a true scumbag, announcing to his wife via press conference with whore, sorry mistress in tow, that he were leaving her was truly slimey. Judith is a vile toad herself, a true homewreaker, this is a match made in hell.

November 30, 2007 10:41 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

Let's not even talk about the effect that press conference had on his two grade-school aged children. As far as bulbman, there's a large Rudy fan club out there and they have a good case. It's not good enough by any stretch, but bullbman is right that Rudy would destroy the remnants of the Christian Right and his views on gay people are much needed,

Rudy would make a good head of Homeland Security, I said so when that monolith was first created. He was a great US attorney. I hear he was on this list, but made it clear he wants the Big Chair.

He's not without his uses, but as President, he'd be worse than Bush by a long shot. He's also got so many skeletons rattling around ready to fall out on que, I just wonder if he'll survive it.  I doubt his pre-Judy shenanigens will stay ancient history for long.  Imagine what the press would do if Obama had a pedophile priest on his payroll - Rudy gets a strange pass on alot of crazy things. No wonder he cries 9/11 over everything, it's like an innoculation or something.

November 30, 2007 11:18 AM

Wandreycer1 said:

This is also why we need Rudy to lose big in the primaries. All hope of him ever winning must be entirely extinguished.  

If he barely loses in the general, he will simply run until he wins.  He's one of those Machivellian Kings whose ambition must be taken completely out, not just temporarily tamed.  

November 30, 2007 11:50 AM

Rhubarbs said:

Wandreycer, you raise a frightening thought: That even a barely beaten Rudy in 2008 might just be the modern equivalent of a barely beaten Nixon in 1960. Worse still, when one sets one's mind to historical analogies, is the thought that Rudy couldn't stand the heat of a Senate race against Hillary but might face her in a race for president just two years later. A mismatched Senate cakewalk, followed two years later by the same pair running for president, has happened once before. Hillary might ask Stephen Douglas how 1858 trouncing his in-state rival Abe Lincoln in the Senate race worked out for his 1860 presidential run.

Just another reason for all Americans to pray that we do not wind up with a Rudy/Hillary race next year -- and to vote accordingly in the primaries.

November 30, 2007 12:31 PM

blackton said:

wandrey, I think if Rudy loses now he loses for good. If a Republican wins in 08 he would have to wait at least until 16, and whoever is the sitting VP(or previous if the Republicans lose in 12)  would get first shot.  I doubt Rudy will age that well. His only hope now if he loses now is for a Democrat to win, in which case he would have to go up against a sitting incumbent. I really think if Rudy can't make it now, he can't make it ever.

November 30, 2007 12:42 PM