RE: Obama: WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

RE: Bill Richardson's strange Iowa support

The CW says that Richardson folks go to Hillary, because they're obviously looking for experience.

But the fact that these strange voters are actively supporting a no-name no-chance candidate, Richardson, rather than the "real" experience candidate, Hillary, says that they probably just like the guy or something. He has focused on bread and butter issues in Iowa so maybe that resonates. Or maybe these folks are just hispanic voters (does Iowa have hispanic people? I dunno...)

If I were Hillary I'd go to Bill richardson and work out a deal: Give me your support, and I'll give you the vice presidency.*

*Hillary's fingers would be totally crossed.

One of my good friends is still convinced that Edwards will collapse and then his hero Bill Richardson will climb his way to the top of the Iowa polls and knock out Clinton and Obama. And now I laugh at him because my guy Obama is ahead (for the time being). I don't take much stock in this poll other than it's a reflection of Hillary's suckitude at the debate a few weeks ago.

rozenson -- Maybe. But sampling for the poll was Nov. 14-18, meaning most of it was presumably done after last week's CNN debate, the big media narrative from which was that Hillary had ceased her brief foray into sucking and re-established her creds as the of-course front runner. If Iowans are responding to what they saw two debates ago, that means something's sticking with them, which might be worth putting at least some stock in. I'll take the good news, either way.

To hell with an offer of VP,  the entire national Democratic party should focus, laser-like, on getting Bill Richardson to run for senate since Dominici's retiring.

Use threats or bribes.  Do whatever you have to do.  But get him to run for that seat.

I couldn't sleep last night after seeing these numbers.  O-B-A-M-A.

Great news for Obama supporters like me, but What Is To Be Done With Bill Richardson is  the question that plagues my brain this  evening...

I suppose there is an argument that Richardson as a veep candidate might be more valuable than Richardson as senator.  The republicans  would have a really hard  time swinging New Mexico with any of their top contenders if he was on the ticket.  And  the Dems are looking set to hold on to the senate in 2008, no?  So he may not be necessary.  Who else could they put up for that senate seat anyway, Martin Chavez?  I used to live in NM and still love the place, but I just don't know enough about the political  scene there anymore.  

Do you think Richardson is still viable after his sometimes clownish campaigning hewstino? I always liked him, but he bombed on the stump.  Do hispanics vote for him outside of New Mexico?  Just wondering.  I'm not much of a race person at all, but I keep harping on the hispanic thing because it counter-balances some of the Dems weaknesses on immigration.  

If Obama somehow manages to pull this off (is it too wonderful to even hope?), I think he'd pick some fierce military type white man anyway.

Hewstino,

"Use threats or bribes.  Do whatever you have to do.  But get him to run for that seat."

Try hot dogs (cf Lizza profile of Huggybear in TNR... assuming the archives are still accessible)

Wandrey - Obama + Jim Webb for VP sounds like a winner to me. Obama certainly looks better to this Dem after meeting Edwards and beholding what a turkey he is.

Wandrey - I thought you were a Hillary supporter?

Good news in Iowa but Sen. Clinton still dominates in New Hampshire (a substantial plurality is undecided, though).

cleavet,

If Obama wins Iowa, New Hampshire becomes a whole new ballgame.

Obama--according to polling at least--has much greater cross-over appeal to independents and republicans than does Clinton. If Obama wins Iowa those, independents and few republicans can vote for Obama in the democratic primary thanks to New Hampshire's relaxed primary rules.

However, if Clinton wins Iowa, she will look inevitable, and those independents might vote in the republican primary where they will feel their vote will matter, or they will just stay home.

I think an Obama win in Iowa brings them to the polls; a Clinton win keeps them away.

For Obama, Iowa is pretty much make or break.  

Call me a Hillary defender.  I still defend her as a person and as a potential President, she'd be excellent.  Every now and then I catch her back when it's obvious to me that the double-standard gender stuff is getting too thick to ignore at that moment - I try to be polite about that stuff, just doing my duty and all that.  I even accept that some of the beefs against her have merit, but I admire her anyway.  She's a remarkable person and I'm grateful she is in public life.  

But she's so polarizing that I can't defend her anymore as a Presidential *candidate*, fair or not.  Just seeing all the Democrats who can't deal with her, let alone any hope of cross-over votes - it's tough not to panic (something she's pretty good at not doing, although she knows danger when she sees it and Obama is clearly a danger to her - watch for more dirty leaks, etc).  

I've always been simply in love with Obama as a Presidential candidate, no one has inspired me more, no one even close.  He's real, he's sensible, steady, skeptical, doesn't pander. He's open about rebuilding soft-power as a goal, no caveats, no wussing out in fear to winger mau-mauing.  He's talked about universal pre-school - a money saver of there ever was one.  He's a progressive with a supple, sharp, yet open mind who is also a former Consitutional  law professor in this era of defiling our most precious document.  Would I love this man to be our nominee? Uh, yeah.

But I love the idea of winning the lottery too and it seemed about as likely.  Obama is what I would hope we could become, but hope has been in short supply for this battered Democrat these low last several years.  Even post 2006, the Democrats mostly just piss me off.  It's hard to hope, to be corny about it.  But when I saw that 30% number last night, it felt like a breakthrough.  Maybe Iowans have the courage to go for it, to go for real change.

And Tep - you're singing my song - you know how much I love Jim Webb. If Obama could tap him, we'd be in an excellent position to win especially if McCain keeps up his big Mo.  With Senator Clinton?  Just more worry, depression, concern about losing, about unleashing more negativity into this country.  I don't think I could handle another loss.  Especially to Guiliani! Who is a loathsome henchman of banality and stupidity.  Ugh.

So, bring in Obama, I'm out of the closet now.  O-B-A-M-A.

NH - Senator Clinton owns NH, it is worrisome.  But Obama was an unknown 25 points down in Iowa 4 months ago.  That is amazing.

Wow, Webb might not be a bad balance for Obama.  He brings gravity and experience, but because neither of them have been in national politics too long, so it's  about as good an outsider ticket as you could get.  He'd be good on a Hillary ticket as well.  But... then there's another senate seat to fill!  Ahhh!  

Wandrey, when I lived in New Mexico in the mid-1990s, Bill Richardson was held in awe by a lot of Dems as the consumate politician.  That probably says as much about NM as it does about anything else, even though his achievements as  a pol from a poor southwestern state are actually pretty staggering.  He is great at the retail politics, the hot dog stuffing etc, but i just don't know how that would translate at a national level.   Looking at him again after the distance of a few  years, he does  indeed look more than a little unsophisticated and, as you say, clownish.  He seems like a politician from an earlier era.  I don't know how he'd do with latinos or anyone else nationwide, but my gut instinct is that he just couldn't withstand the scrutiny of a national campagn.  

I mean for God's sake, look at this guy's resume!  That he can't even get into third place in the primary is astonishing and says as much about his inability to kick his popularity up to the next level as anything.  It really can't all be the media's fault.  He just needs to get it into his head that there's nothing  wrong with being the biggest fish in the small, wonderful pond of New Mexico.

woah, sorry for the garbled syntax in that first paragraph of my last post.  so many half-baked ideas... flooding my head...

Richardson is a credit to the nation in many ways and I hope he stays in public life. It's very unfair how different the alchemy is for a Presidential candidate.  It's pixie dust, gut level stuff.  He's a very likable man, for some odd reason he just couldn't pull it together as a candidate. I'm not sure it's polish - look at George Bush, a man with no polish at all and little else to offer but that pixie dust, gut level stuff.  I wish it were a more fair process, but it's not.

As a real-live geezerly Iowan caucus-goer, I have a few observations. We do collectively take great pride in delicately popping that bubble, as we did with Dean. I think you could hear the whole state go "harumph" the day after that caucus. Next, it's a caucus, not a primary. Just saying. . .

My wife and I are halfway serious with our claim about how we'll pick our candidate—whichever of the viable candidates contacts us the LEAST. Since about a year ago, we've gotten forests full of junk mail, hours of voicemails, DVDs, canvassers. I'm holding out for the singing telegram. But seriously, some of the candidates have gone beyond the irritating point. You get docked extra if you don't show up on caller ID, and even more after 7PM.

I'm torn right now between Edwards and Obama. I like Edwards' brain—packed with hundreds of good, implementable ideas—and I have some loyalty having caucused for him in 2004. But like Wandreycer1 said, maybe it's time for Iowa to push for the truly new, Obama.

So, Barack and John, we're free for dinner this Saturday night if you'd like to take us out and give us the personal spiel. Not that we're spoiled or anything. Just don't forget us and our four measly electoral votes after January!

Damn, the Dems are taking credit for gravity now, too?  Who knew?

This GOPer would love to run against HRC, the campaign writes itself no matter which guy we have.  Obama would be much tougher to run against.

But if I absolutely MUST have a Dem as President, give me HRC.  At least she has an experienced advisor.

Redbird, you made my day!  Hilarious!

My mother lives in Oregon, which is sometimes a swing state and every election she keeps a tab on who calls her when.  When I asked her who she was voting for in 2004, she said "Well, Norman Schwarkopf called me at 8:30 last night, right in the middle of The Sopranos - I told him to tell Bush he lost my vote for that."

Move to the West Side of Manhattan, I've never received one piece of poltical mail or one phone call in my life (why bother, right?).  The only people I see in my corner diner are Alec Baldwin (often looking like he's been up all night) and the occaisonal sleepy jazz player. John Edwards may blow in to town for a fund raiser, but he won't make it to this side of Central Park I'm afraid, it's too far from Park Avenue (wink).  

Obama went to Columbia and is a former community organizer, most of us do gooder West Side busy bodies consider him practically a relative.

I won't pester you too much, it's an important decision, but who do you think has the best chance of getting Republican and independent cross over votes? Who causes the most excitement in Democrats?  Who would be the toughest for Republicans to defile and attack?  Who ANSWERS the questions posed to him rather than spewing poll tested verbage? Who was President of the Harvard Law Review in its Federalist Society hey-day (oops, I'm giving myself away)?  Who would change the entire world's views of us within one hour of election?  Who is fed up with tired boomer nonsense?

O-B-A-M-A.

I still favor, and still predict success for, Clinton, for the usual reasons -- tougher internationally, more sure-footed in dealing with political issues in the campaign and with issues abroad.  

I remain puzzled by the VP speculation for Richardson, who seems to have been generally unimpressive so far, and was certainly unimpressive when I saw him during the summer.  I am even more puzzled by the speculation about Webb, who seems a loose cannon, and of dubious reliability as anyone's #2.

Of course Butchie, we Dems had to do something amazing once our friends across the aisle invented God.

You think tarfon?  I think his perceived volitility is a plus in this case (he's actually a very thoughtful man, plus or minus a gun incident or two - another plus in this case).

We can have our calm, centered, reasonable, wonky President and then we need our own version of the Cheney-like rottweiler in there.  Everyone I know of either party adores him.

Wandrey,

The Republicans didn't invent God, they just copyrighted him.

That's right, Adam, so don't get any ideas about any God references from the Dem side.  Lawsuit to follow.  :-)

Wandrey, what, the Internet wasn't enough?  LOL

Look between gravity and the Internet, not to mention All Good Intentions Towards Our Fellow Man, who even needs God?  You all can keep him.

Butchie,

I wouldn't threaten the Dems with a lawsuit. Edwards will need something to do after Iowa.

RE: NH

If Obama wins in Iowa, he'll get a huge bump and easily overtake Hillary in New Hampshire...NH support is fairly shallow, with most voters saying they could change their mind.

Just wondering - Am I the only one who finds the title of this post to be a bit, um...unfortunate?

"Move to the West Side of Manhattan, I've never received one piece of poltical mail or one phone call in my life (why bother, right?)."

Or live in Vermont. Howard Dean notwithstanding, we haven't mattered in the nominating process in decades. It was extrordinary to see McCain up on the northern border a few days ago--it was like an alien visitation.

dsimpson - I think "movin' on up" would have been unfortunate, but this one's ok. I think.

redbird52: I'm risking you considering  this to be alienating pestering, but: Here are some important and implementable ideas on education from the Brain of Obama: my.barackobama.com/.../Cx3F

Psantillana, thanks for the link. Not pestering at all—I solicited it. (I love the "Narnians4Obama" handle about halfway down...)

Here's another Iowan observation that might interest. A few weeks back I realized that I haven't met anybody who's going to caucus for Clinton, but several committed Obama- and Edwards-supporters. I run with a fairly politically informed, middle-to-left crowd, so that certainly has surprised me.