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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
16.11.2007
Department of Apples and Oranges

Andrew links to a shocking article in The Times of London that suggests an epidemic of suicides among veterans:

More American military veterans have been committing suicide than US soldiers have been dying in Iraq, it was claimed yesterday.

At least 6,256 US veterans took their lives in 2005, at an average of 17 a day, according to figures broadcast last night. Former servicemen are more than twice as likely than the rest of the population to commit suicide.

Such statistics compare to the total of 3,863 American military deaths in Iraq since the invasion in 2003 - an average of 2.4 a day, according to the website ICasualties.org...

The suicide rate among Americans as a whole was 8.9 per 100,000, but the level among veterans was at least 18.7. That figure rose to a minimum of 22.9 among veterans aged 20 to 24 – almost four times the nonveteran average for people of the same age.

The implicit suggestion is that the toll of the Iraq war is higher than we ever dared imagine, that even after they return to the States, traumatized vets are as much, or even more, at risk for their lives as they were on the battlefield. The problem with this comparison is that there are vastly more U.S. veterans than soldiers who are serving, or have ever served, in Iraq. According to the 2006 census, there are 23.7 million veterans in the United States, of whom 9.2 million are over 65 and 8 million served in the Vietnam era; by contrast, just 1.9 million veterans are under 35. The Times article essentially admits as much in its 7th graph: "There are 25 million veterans in the United States, 1.6 million of whom [i.e., between 6 and 7 percent] served in Afghanistan and Iraq." Moreover, the suicide rates cited by the Times appear to come from data going back as far as 1995, indicating that most of the deaths tallied predate the Iraq war.

None of this is to suggest that post-traumatic stress and other mental and emotional problems among veterans are not pressing issues. And they're almost certain to get far, far worse when the soldiers who have been serving in Iraq (and, to a lesser extent, Afghanistan) return home. But inflammatory comparisons between the number of soldiers killed in Iraq and the number of veterans (out of a vastly larger population) who commit suicide obscure far more than they clarify.

--Christopher Orr

Posted: Friday, November 16, 2007 11:03 AM with 4 comment(s)

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miceelf said:

Well, it is apples and oranges. The real and by far more pertinent comparison is the rate of suicide among veterans, compared with non-veterans- at least twice as much, and probably more. That belies the claims of the VA flak I saw on ABC the other day claiming that "suicide isn't a veteran problem, it's an American problem" or something of the sort.

Um, no, i'ts not.

November 16, 2007 12:16 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Man oh man... this one is a classic of bullshit sociology combined with a complete lack of understanding of probability and stats. I have a feeling that Intro Stats profs will be retelling this one for decades to come.

Clue #1: the suicide rate in ANY society is roughly an order of magnitude higher for males than for females.

Clue #2: suicidally-depressive males who have ready access to and experience with firearms are far more likely to successfully kill themselves than suicidally-depressive males who don't have and have never used firearms.

Clue #3: males who have served in the US military are more likely than males who've never served to own firearms and use them. They are _orders of magnitude_ more likely than females to own firearms and use them.

November 16, 2007 1:03 PM

miceelf said:

Uh, tep, the numbers for veterans are actually higher, when compared to the demographically comparable group (i.e., men of a similar age). That's what most of the research on suicide among veterans demonstrates, and what I assumed got dumbed down in the media reports as "twice the rate of non-veterans". So that takes care of hint 1, along with the obligatory snarky aside that you aren't accurate about "ANY society." In rural China, the rates for men and women for completed suicides are actually similar. People assume this has something to do with access to lethal instruments (implied in clue #3).

Clues 2 and 3 might make sense as an explanation, I suppose. I am not sure that firearm access is the be-all and end-all of explaining differences in suicide rates. Men are more likely to use lethal means of whatever sort- without firearms, there are a host of other options equally available to most men- hanging drowning and drug overdose are all fairly common as methods of suicide in men in general, and veteran men in particular.

November 16, 2007 2:23 PM

Robert Powell said:

Back to the subject at hand--willful use of propaganda to give aid and comfort to the enemy. I'm generally opposed to capital punishment, but journalists who play games like this really should face some consequences. Anybody got stats on Iraqi suicide rates during the Iran/Iraq war? Russian Afghanistan vets?  Left-handed Japanese hedge fund managers?

One must ask the question--what is the purpose of this sort of manipulation?

November 17, 2007 2:46 PM