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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
09.11.2007
Chronicle of a Political Death Foretold

The New York Observer's Steve Kornacki has a fairly devastating piece today about the ongoing crash-and-burn of Fred Thompson's presidential candidacy:

Consider the latest national poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, which has Mr. Giuliani safely ahead of the pack at 33 percent, followed distantly by Mr. McCain at 16 percent. Mr. Thompson runs behind him, at 15 percent—which is not good sign considering that he was at 23 percent last month and 26 percent two months ago.

Individual state polls indicate that Mr. Thompson is essentially in a free-fall. Last month, a Rasmussen poll pegged his support in Iowa, which will hold its caucuses in less than two months, at 19 percent. In the four independent polls taken since then, though, his support has been cut in half—as low as 8 percent in a survey released two weeks ago. The numbers are more dismal in New Hampshire, where Mr. Thompson hasn’t cracked 10 percent in a poll in a month. He now regularly trails Mike Huckabee in the state, and even fell behind Ron Paul in one survey two weeks ago. Granted, the Thompson campaign isn’t even pretending to be targeting New Hampshire, which is not the best fit for a southern conservative, anymore. But if his message and campaign skills even approached what they were sold as this spring and summer, sheer inertia would have Mr. Thompson faring much better in New Hampshire.

Looks like he'll have time for that long nap after all.

--Christopher Orr 

Photo: Getty Images

Posted: Friday, November 09, 2007 3:51 PM with 10 comment(s)

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adaglas said:

This is how the campaign ends, not with a bang but with a yawn.

In a way, it's oddly encouraging to see that the voters won't follow too long behind a candidate who's all image and no substance - I mean, even Rudy manages at least a 90/10 ratio, in his demented way.  Now if only we all responded a little more favorably to a Bizarro Thompson, all steak and no sizzle (Joe Biden anyone?)

November 9, 2007 4:28 PM

virginiacentrist said:

Yeah - Thompson just looks physically ill out there. It's sad, really.

...but I tend to agree with Mickey Kaus that Thompson could use immigration effectively. Every single candidate, save himself, has serious vulnerabilities that can be expoited in an Iowa issue ad:

"Rudy Giuliani fought the Clinton Administration and established a sanctuary for illegals in New York City. Mitt Romney supported amnesty [Cut to Romney making pro-illegal statements in the past]. Mike Huckabee has compared illegal immigratoin opponents to slave holders."

Dont' even mention McCain.

November 9, 2007 4:43 PM

Wandreycer1 said:

My gut tells me this whole immigration saber rattling is oversold.  Every politician who bangs that gong  loses big so far and pisses off every latino voter from here to Alaska - not a small number of people - a motivated voter block too. Not that there isn't room for concrete, decent ideas, that's just not what we'll get from these Republican presidential candidates.  If Thompson starts snorting and puffing about the teaming hordes defiling our borders, he'll look even more ridiculous that he already does, I give him credit for that.

November 9, 2007 5:03 PM

boneill said:

This is not a Fred T apologia, but he has said a few things that have impressed me a bit.  I think it was the other day when he derided an abortion law by sayin git would throw young girls in jail, not exactly red meat to the base he is courting.   There were a few other contrarian things.  Not that I think he would be a good President, not in a million, billion years, but he isn't really pandering as much as I thought, either.

Thompson 08- Not Noticeably Pandering As Much As the Other Guys!  

GO GOP!

Of course, I have laregly ignored Thompson, and he may have already said a billion things that negate my thesis.  Screw it.

November 9, 2007 5:31 PM

williamyard said:

boneill,

Your Thompson slogan ("Not Noticeably Pandering As Much As the Other Guys!") leads us down a dismal but probably inevitable road:

Rudy Giuliani:  More Stable Than His Ferret-Fearing Cross-Dressing Would Imply!

Hillary Clinton: Her Eyelids Close When She Sleeps--Honest!

Barack Obama:  Just As Partisan As the Others--Unless That's a Bad Thing!

Mitt Romney:  Buying Iowa--But at a Great Price!

Ron Paul:  He's Serious!

John Edwards:  One of the First to Apologize for Iraq Vote!

John McCain:  Takes a Licking and Keeps On Ticking!

Bill Richardson:  Hasn't Said Anything This Week!

November 9, 2007 5:59 PM

drdannyu said:

Bill, yours are much better than mine.  All I could come up with was

McCain '08 -- Come ON, people!

Kucinich '08 -- Join the Intergalactic Listening Tour!

RomneyTron 2008 -- More Reliably Conservative than the 2002 Model!

November 9, 2007 6:15 PM

adaglas said:

Clinton '08 - All Your Base Are Belong To Us

Romney '08 - A Thousand PowerPoints of Light

Paul '08 - Admit It, You Hate The Department of the Interior Too!

Richardson '08 - Remember When Presidential Flubs Were Funny?

Giuliani '08 - Because You Can't Vote for Jack Bauer

Kucinich '08 - Don't Blame Me - I Voted for Kodos!

November 9, 2007 6:56 PM

adaglas said:

Drdan - RomneyTron is brilliant.  And since I just got caught up on that thread from yesterday, please congratulate Epic for me as well.

November 9, 2007 6:58 PM

teplukhin2you said:

adaglas - classic! Mr Yard, you've been upstaged.

November 10, 2007 6:29 PM

The Plank said:

I don't buy the Giuliani campaign's recent conference call outlining their candidate's inevitable

November 12, 2007 7:34 PM