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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
04.06.2008
Are Dems Flubbing the Climate Debate?

Via Joe Romm, Roll Call detects more than a hint of disarray in the Democrats' political strategy for the Lieberman-Warner climate bill that's currently being debated on the Senate floor. The piece is subscriber-only, but here are the key tidbits:

"We are about to take up the most important fight of our generation, and we have no strategy, no message and no plan to get out of this," one senior Senate Democratic aide said.

Another senior Senate Democratic staffer echoed those sentiments: "Everyone knows this bill is going nowhere. The president is opposed to it. The House is not inclined toward action on this, and now we're going to spend valuable floor time on a bill that's going nowhere ... while Republicans are champing at the bit to accuse Democrats of raising gas prices." ...

It appears that the Democratic discord has less to do with the bill's specifics, the bulk of which most Democrats support, and more to do with the communications strategy -- or lack thereof -- employed to maximize any political gains if the bill fails to garner the 60 votes necessary to beat back a likely filibuster. ...

Many Democrats across the ideological spectrum foresee a public relations disaster looming, given that whip counts show that not even a majority of senators -- less than 45 by most aides' counts -- are likely to vote for Boxer's substitute, which was authored by Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.).

Lieberman-Warner won't survive a White House veto. It won't even get the 60 votes necessary to hurdle a filibuster. Virtually no one believes it will pass, save for (maybe) the ever-optimistic folks at Environmental Defense Fund. Moreover, environmentally speaking, it's just not a very good bill. So why did the leadership bring it to the floor this year? The most plausible explanation I've heard is that kicking off this debate now would force various senators to pay attention to climate-change issues and get their staffers thinking through the actual policy questions, so that when 2009 ushers in a greener White House and bluer Senate, Congress can "hit the ground running." Of course, that comes to naught if, as per Roll Call's anonymous gripers, this bit of Kabuki all ends up being a disaster politically.

So have the Dems done a good job of framing this legislative battle? In the press, at least, the debate seems to get cast as one between environmentalists who want to save the polar bears and conservatives who care about the heavy costs to an already-bruised economy. And that's created an opening for conservatives like Mississippi's Thad Cochran to exclaim that the climate bill will be "especially harmful to lower-income families." (Indeed, every single Republican in the floor debate today has, miraculously, discovered a newfound concern for the working class.)

Dems have tried to counter that line, albeit with scattered success. Oil and gas prices, they'll argue, are going to continue to rise for the foreseeable future, likely quite dramatically, and those pump prices aren't getting any less painful. The notion that we can drill our way out of this mess has always been a ludicrous fantasy—the only way out is to unhitch the U.S. economy from fossil fuels. I'll just add that, from what I've seen on the state level, environmentalists there have become quite adept at talking about the benefits of climate action that go beyond "merely" saving the planet—everything from green jobs to health to energy stability. Partly as a result, statehouses have passed a decent number of climate bills to date. It's just not clear that those tactics have bubbled up to the federal level.

P.S. For the truly masochistic among us, here's a page with videos of all the climate speeches on the Senate floor today. And Daniel Weiss offers up a handy list of the most common arguments against climate legislation (along with rebuttals, most of them convincing).

P.P.S. Dave Roberts has some great thoughts on framing. 

--Bradford Plumer

Posted: Wednesday, June 04, 2008 10:26 PM with 6 comment(s)

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liberal reformer said:

The Republicans do have great demagogic potential on these matters at the federal level. The obvious comeback, Bradford, is that the Republicans are in the pockets of the oil and gas industries. There is a good deal of populist sentiment presently because of the stratospheric gas prices. It is just a question of which narrative will  prevail in this election cycle.

June 4, 2008 6:51 PM

Brad Plumer said:

True, EDF, which is one of the few environmental groups strongly supporting this bill (the rest are kind of tepid) has been blasting out e-mails hourly noting that a vote against the bill is a vote with the oil companies. I do wonder if that only gets you so far, though it certainly worked for the Dems in '06.

June 4, 2008 7:34 PM

JEFF FREY said:

I think there is no way that a "climate security" act is going to fly unless it is linked to an "energy security" act. The two things go hand in hand. The link is clear -- in order to reduce carbon emissions, we need to burn less oil, which is also what we want to do to stop handing over so much money to countries that really don't like us. But we can't reduce carbon emissions without a lot of disruption unless we aggressively develop non-carbon energy sources. It is an economic necessity.

The critical flaw in the Republicans' claims is that they assume that there are no costs associated with doing nothing. But there are huge costs associated with doing nothing, including the economic cost of energy. Demand for oil has been growing faster than supply for quite a while now, and there is no indication that supply is going to increase at that rate any time soon. So prices will keep going up until demand drops. Most likely, there will also be large costs associated with changing climate, but those are harder to predict.

Yes, there are uncertainties in any projection of future costs. There always are. But we have to emphasize the cost of doing nothing, not just the cost of doing something.

June 5, 2008 2:25 AM

lsernoff said:

No nukes, no drilling, no refineries; the Democratic battle cry on these fronts is no change.  instead they want to create a new nirvana for lobbyists.  While they're at it they should take credit for our forward thinking on ethanol from corn:  hit the consumer in his food budget without making a dent in his energy budget.  Sounds like a great political strategy to me.

June 5, 2008 3:38 PM

singlespeed said:

Here's how Dems can frame the debate and I'll build on what Frey started with.

Dems need to say to the American people "That with climate change comes energy concerns for everyone. Higher costs at the pump, higher energy costs that impact food prices, clothes prices, and the pressure of oil consumption by other nations will only lead to future price increases and perhaps worse. The Republicans would like to scare you with hearsay while not doing anything. They're response is to give more of your Federal tax dollars to oil and fossil fuel companies and countries that don't have your best interest at heart. Americans have always risen to the challenge of overcoming uncertainty. We know the economy is not doing well, that fuel prices get worse but we also know that the Republicans and Bush administration would like to do nothing but increase our dependence on other nations to save us. Just as they have for the past 8 years, they've done nothing but line the pockets of lobby groups that have done nothing to ensure or even work towards a solution to climate change and energy security for America. This wont be easy but we ask Americans to support the move towards a more sustainable and energy secure tomorrow.

Even though this bill is not perfect, it is a start. The President says he will veto it, Republicans will say they'll filibuster. For what? To give their friends in far away places more of your money! Instead we need a new way towards American energy independence and security that also affects climate change in a positive way. This bill is a start on that road. So if the American people will rise to the challenge and help us by doing more with less. If you can, walk to work, carpool or ride a bike, take mass transit, drive less, get a more fuel efficient car, open the windows on your home, use less energy, be more efficient and work towards American energy security by supporting American renewable energy production. Because we can't afford another 8 years of the do nothing Republicans when it comes to helping America become energy secure, energy independent, the world leader of green energy and leaving a cleaner, safer and better America for our children and grandchildren who will feel the effects of climate change first hand."

It's that simple. Just force the Republican hand now and get them to back pedal. Bush is a lame duck now and getting him to veto this bill will only signal to Americans that the Republicans and Bush care more about big oil and fossil fuel buddies than the average American or America's energy independence, security and climate change.

June 5, 2008 3:53 PM

JustGetThere said:

Canada Free Press | This week’s Climate Tax Bill debate revealed many useful insights into why the American people will remain skeptical of a global warming cap-and-trade system. The Wall Street Journal aptly noted on June 6 that environmentalists

June 9, 2008 5:48 AM