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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
02.05.2008
Are There Alternatives to a Gas-Tax Holiday? Yes.

There are two things going on with high gasoline prices. From an environmental standpoint, these are pretty valuable price signals that are getting people to consume less oil, drive more sparingly, and switch to more fuel-efficient cars. Insofar as you think it's a good idea to wean the country off fossil fuels—either for energy-security reasons or to save the planet from toasting—those are positives outcomes, and short-term gimmicks to reduce the price of gas, as Hillary Clinton and John McCain prefer, are counterproductive. (Of course, the Clinton-McCain gas-tax "holiday" wouldn't lower the price of gas by all that much, if anything, but that's another story.)

That said, in the short term, many Americans—especially lower-income Americans—really are getting pinched by higher gas prices. Households making less than $15,000 a year now spend, on average, 13 percent of their income on gasoline. It would have been swell if, ten or 20 years ago, Congress had had the foresight to promote, say, fuel efficiency and public transportation—and it should certainly start pursuing those things now—but it didn't, and now a lot of folks are up a creek without… er, a light rail.

It's not impossible to thread this needle. As Sam Davis and Dan Weiss of the Center for American Progress write, if it's economic pain you're worried about, a better alternative to trying to ratchet down the price of gas or suing OPEC would be to offer a simple temporary tax rebate to all lower- and middle-income families. This way, those that genuinely have no alternatives to driving would be better able to cope with increases at the pump, while those that can drive less or carpool or take public transit would still have incentive to do so, since they could pocket a bigger chunk of their rebate. It's environmental and progressive, and a proposal like this would probably let Obama maintain his edge on this issue while shoring up his vulnerabilities.

If Congress needs to raise the $22 billion to pay for this little rebate, it could always repeal some of the tax loopholes and tax breaks handed out to oil and gas companies. After all, officials from those companies have conceded that they don't need tax breaks to encourage exploration. More than anything, though, it would be helpful if the United States started aggressively pursuing policies to reduce its reliance on oil—so that when $200/barrel inevitably strikes, we're not all still sitting around once again having heated discussions about hare-brained gas-tax holidays and short-term bailouts.

P.S. Somewhat apropos, Matt Yglesias passes along evidence that consumers only bear half the burden of a gas tax (wholesalers bear the other half). As he says, "if we were to raise the gas tax, then rebate half the revenues to citizens on some kind of flat per person basis, and make the other half available to fund transit projects, there'd be no net burden on the population, you'd create an incentive to use alternative forms of transportation where they exist, and you'd have a pool of revenue available to create alternative forms of transportation." Unlikely, sure, but worth thinking about.

--Bradford Plumer

Posted: Friday, May 02, 2008 5:28 PM with 18 comment(s)

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literatehobo said:

It's a nice sentiment, but represents the wrong direction for Democrats to take. We don't need more government programs making finances and the economy even more complicated, even if they're well intentioned. It's hard enough as a working person to figure out the massive tax code we already have, particularly those of us who don't spare money to hire an accountant. The last thing I want is yet another well-meaning top-down program that I have to navigate. This is another problem with the ClinCain tax holiday; guess who gets to do all the paperwork and hassle of tracking those changes at the pump? Local gas station owners, who I doubt are too thrilled at the prospect.

I feel the country will be better off with a leader who has the guts to say, "Sorry, folks, but these conditions are here to stay, they're the result of our own policies and behaviors, and it's not the government's job to offer socialist bailouts every time sometihng doesn't go right. We're going to take this lesson to heart this time and move aggressively to influence a better future, but it's not the government's role to bail people out with gimmicks." If only McCain would say to the country what he said to Detroit.

May 2, 2008 2:21 PM

Brad Plumer said:

That makes a lot of sense, although technically, this would simplify the tax codes--it strips away a lot of loopholes and tax breaks for various oil companies, and a simple rebate is pretty straightforward.  

May 2, 2008 2:28 PM

literatehobo said:

Brad,

Simplifying the tax code for oil companies doesn't exactly help me do my taxes. And yes, theoretically, a "simple rebate is pretty straightforward", but it's still an extra step that the money is moving back and forth, costing government time and energy to process. How much did it cost the IRS to implement the latest economic stimulus rebate, including sending out letters to notify people they might qualify, hunting down people to get them to file  a tax return so they would qualify, actually identifying and preparing and sending the rebate checks, and so on? I suppose all the IRS employees it took to do that had some positive effect on the economy, but somehow I don't see it as worthwhile in the end. It's like paying to conduct a marketing survey to determine that yes, indeed, your ten-year-old's lemondate stand can charge $.10 more per cup on the opposite side of the street.

If you want to put money back in people's pockets, start at the source and fix the original process of taking it from them in the first place so that you don't have to take as much and more will allow you to take it.

May 2, 2008 2:45 PM

teplukhin2you said:

" these are pretty valuable price signals that are getting people to consume less oil, drive more sparingly"

In theory, sure, but all the evidence I've seen is that, unlike 1979, miles driven during this gas price runup have not fallen at all. Price-elasticity of demand for gasoline is approaching zero.

Obviously, until you provide ordinary working Americans with real, viable, time-efficient mass transit options, along with vastly increased telecommuting options, people will continue to drive long distances. Especially in the metro areas that have seen enormous runups in real estate prices,  causing commuters to move farther and farther from the employment centers in order to find housing they can afford.

The long-term solution here goes way beyond the green agenda and encompasses a radical shift toward high density housing and employment nodes connected by efficient mass transit. That's a trillion dollar + retooling of our metropolitan infrastructure and lifestyle.

May 2, 2008 2:53 PM

Brad Plumer said:

tep -- Agreed with all you said (and have noted as much in a number of posts), although worth noting that miles driven does seem to be starting to decline:

www.csmonitor.com/.../p01s05-usec.html

But dramatic cuts won't happen until, as you say, there are alternatives. I do think that's a big part of the "green agenda," though.

May 2, 2008 2:56 PM

Brad Plumer said:

literatehobo -- Points well taken, but I do think that when people living below the poverty line are now spending 15 percent of their income on gasoline (while being pinched by an increase in food prices as well), a little relief is in order while we try to do things that reduce dependence on oil. I don't know a better way to do it. Can't really cut income taxes for people making under $15,000, and a temporary payroll tax cut would be, I think, more complicated than a rebate. I'd obviously be open to better ideas, though.

May 2, 2008 3:01 PM

literatehobo said:

Brad,

Yes, I see your point, but here's the rub. These higher fuel prices and higher food prices are actually an adjustment upward toward where they SHOULD be. America has enjoyed unusually low fuel and food prices (overall) for decades, due largely to expensive government intervention. Yes, these adjustments really hurt when they hit people without a lot of economic leeway (and those folks go a lot higher than $15,000/year), but the alternative is to continue with a borderline socialist guarantee from government that it will spend our tax money to keep these staples arbitrarily low. It's amazing how many people who froth at the though of welfare can insist with a straight face that government should "do something" about food or fuel prices. Far better to accept that higher food and fuel prices are reaching more realistic levels, and deal with that by ending, entirely, the expensive government programs that were keeping them low, and returning that money to taxpayers through a simplification of the tax code and relevant policies  that would not require raising and spending so much money in the first place. My overall point is that these things are interconnected, and it's not effective to throw money at a problem with the left hand of government when the right hand is actively making the problem worse.

I do grant your point that even if a savior were to appear and work full-time on implementing such a thing, it would take years, and in the meantime it is not good for the country to have parents cutting back on food staples for their kids because they can't afford them, and people losing jobs and work because they can't get there. So I'll be realistic about your proposals, but only if they are used as a cushion for the larger transition, and not as a solution or a subsidy, as all three candidates seem to think.

Tep,

Theoretically agreed, but how do you even begin to go about implementing that sort of master plan in a country founded on personal freedom and choice, and with a government system rigged to work short-sightedly?

May 2, 2008 3:28 PM

Brad Plumer said:

"So I'll be realistic about your proposals, but only if they are used as a cushion for the larger transition, and not as a solution or a subsidy, as all three candidates seem to think."

Fair points, and I agree with this quoted bit wholeheartedly, and hope I didn't under-emphasize it in my post.

May 2, 2008 3:36 PM

singlespeed said:

literate...I'll address your question to Tep about higher density development and close proximity to employment and mass transit nodes.

It doesn't require Federal funding of anything. It's called up-zoning. And that is simply a case of local municipalities revamping their zoning laws to encourage higher density development and most especially mixed-use development. Give tax credits to people who revitalize inner-ring (first generation suburbs) and higher mixed used density development instead of tax breaks to single use zoning and sprawl development that is tied to Federal highway dollars.

I've posted elsewhere that the issues of sprawl and all the negatives that go along with it are more easily addressed by rezoning areas to allow for more live-work, mixed use developments to occur in areas that don't allow it. Local municipalities give away huge tax breaks to big box developments on the edge of town because they think it's good. But it just overextends existing infrastructure, increases driving miles, SOV trips, pollution, sprawl, lost jobs and sustainable business operations in older neighborhoods etc.

But implying that living in a smaller house with a smaller yard is some infringement of personal freedom is a red herring. If you choose to live 50 miles from your job because you think it's better then you pay the price for that. But I shouldn't subsidize your lifestyle choice with tax breaks and increased utility costs, sprawl, cheaper gas prices, etc. In fact, in Australia the growth patterns are similar to the US but city goods and services are cheaper than the rural areas. Why? Because it's not subsidized the way we do it here.

Single use zoning is probably the most important factor in exacerbating the sprawl issues and all the costs associated with that. The quaintness of small towns and certain urban neighborhoods with local business districts is a result of mixed use zoning not the crap we have now.

But like I've said before...the two words Americans hate more are Sprawl and Density.

May 2, 2008 5:17 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

"Can't really cut income taxes for people making under $15,000."

Energy and food bills are background noise, as are tax cuts. I don't understand why there has to be only two or three income tax bands in the West, generally speaking.

Simplify taxes by increasing the number and complexity of tax bands.  VAT, sales and consumption taxes are inherently regressive and tax credits, allowances and rebates just add confusion.  

More bands, less forms.

May 2, 2008 7:50 PM

The Ignorant Populist said:

Make that Anglo-Saxon West.

May 2, 2008 8:07 PM

teplukhin2you said:

Singlespeed - not that simple. The other huge barrier to adoption of he urban high-density solution, at least for anyone with school-age children, is the sh*tty quality of urban schools. Suburban districts have better schools, and very often the best schools are found in new master-planned exurban districts, including those where the developers have partnered with the local government to subsidixe outstanding, brand-new schools with high standards and superb facilities. It's asking a lot, to put it mildly, to expect anyone with school-age kids to park their kids in a sh*tty, third-world quality urban school when they could have green acres AND top-notch public schools out in the 'burbs.

(Yeah, I speak from personal experience. The schools issue is absolutely huge, and it's really tiresome to hear fellow libs just brush it off and natter on and on about sideshows like "sprawl.")

May 3, 2008 12:44 AM

lsernoff said:

When the Democrats agree to permit more nuclear power and new drilling in Alaska and off the coasts, we'll know that they are getting serious about energy.  Don't get nervous!  There's no sign of any of that happening anytime soon.

May 3, 2008 12:43 PM

r-ennis said:

I am a big believer in markets. We are in this mess because our economic system optimized around cheap energy. But the markets will also solve the problem in the long run.

In the short run, low income people who are dependent on their cars will just have to buy less junk at the mall and Walmart. It is already beginning to happen. This is a good thing. It will reduce our balance of payments problem and correct the ailing dollar.

In the longer run, people will buy more fuel efficient vehicles, car pool or move into cities. By and large, the poor are already there, anyway. I believe that a massive move to mass transportation is not in the cards. However, if we allow clean coal, with CO2 capture to develop within proper economic and environmental parameters, and not be shot down by misguided environmental considerations, the railroads will develop a natural rebirth out of economic necessity.

To ease some of the pain, perhaps a tax reduction of some sort on those earning at or below poverty is something I would endorse as would most conservatives.

A lot of the pain is self inflicted. There have been severe restrictions on oil exploration because of poor public perception of the oil industry, led by people who now scream loudest about the high price of energy.

In a nutshell, the government should set environmental policy, but not pick winners and losers. If the fossil fuel industries have useless subsidies, then, by all means, eliminate them. But also eliminate subsidies for biofuels, wind and other potential boondoggles. Then the government should stand aside and let the private sector adjust. And, the government has an obligation to ease the pain on our most vulnerable citizens.

May 3, 2008 7:09 PM

cthulhu2008 said:

If you raised taxes on oil companies to subsidize the cost it would go nowhere because the oil firms would raise prices to cover the taxes.

May 3, 2008 10:59 PM

singlespeed said:

but tep...the reason those schools are built by school districts with developer money is to "attract" folks 50 miles out in the middle of nowhere to buy a home. Having done my time in both third-world urban schools, private schools and suburban schools I can't say that I was too jealous of whether or not the "new" school had a rubberized, asphalt track to run on in H.S. I haven't suffered because of where I went, but I did see a lot a crap and just a much in private as I did in  public schools. But you're arguing for the continued development of exurban schools because why? The first ring suburban school just doesn't look so shiny and new anymore? The problem is thinking that every new suburb further out with single-zoning uses, low density and no mass-transit capability further replicates the very negatives you were escaping from in the last suburb you lived in. You know...the long drives to anonymous land, the parking lots, not being able to walk anyway within a reasonable distance (assuming your suburban development includes sidewalks).

My proposal is taking those single use zoning regs and revamping them so that first-ring suburbs (you know the ones that folks move out from and into those exurbs for "better" schools). The problem is when you have a bunch of empty-nesters becoming bitter, yes, bitter about paying inflated property taxes for schools that are half-full or not full but have all these amazing facilities and they have now kids. Why do you think school districts have to turn to those developers? Sad state of affairs indeed. Students have to be driven in from miles by their parents because God forbid their child walk a mile to school. Because you know the exurbs aren't exactly pedestrian or bicycle friendly for kids. I've seen children get picked up by the bus and driven half a mile so they don't get killed by those exurb commuters going 55 on a quite two-lane road to their job in the office park.

The problem with promoting sprawl with the "better schools" argument starts to lose its sway when the quality of life is tied to overinflated housing prices, long commute times to get to school, after school activities on the other side of town, etc. You spend more time in the car getting to these things than actually doing them. Those developer partnerships also let school districts ignore existing infrastructure problems and allow them to let existing schools fall in disrepair because now it doesn't have as many students, teachers are moved to the new school and the decline of the older school becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. So now all the kids have to go to the mega-school instead of having smaller, local schools and a centrally located place for outdoor sports. Those models do work still you know.

Upzoning would allow greater densification of uses in first-ring suburban areas that are now just zoned for a gas station and a Wal-Mart. If you think inner-ring suburban schools are the bomb then why promote their death knell by supporting exurb school development? I'm a strong proponent of public school education and financing and don't mind paying property taxes. I know that it helps the local schools. I take the long view that properly educating everyone equally (inner city and inner suburban poor as well as those wonder-bread yuppie kids in the exurbs). It serves our society well if everyone has equal access to a proper and well-funded primary & secondary education. People seem to think that every urban school in America blows chunks but keep in mind  you have just as much if not more problems in suburban schools as well. Remember Columbine? Littleton is a suburb of Denver. Moving farther away doesn't solve the issues that we're trying to address. And there are ways to rezone areas that have low density development to free up space in those inner-ring suburbs to create those super schools you're so fond of. In fact it's far greener and more sustainable to expand and remodel those schools than build a new one 15 miles further out.

But hey...instead of trying to creatively solve all the negative issues associated with sprawl, lets just keep doing what we're doing and build suburbs to the suburbs.  

May 5, 2008 10:35 AM

dhauck said:

singlespeed - sorry, I'm with tep on this one.  Of course, I actually live a little closer in to Cleveland than the house I grew up in, but one of the things I like best about my outer-ring local suburban schools (within walking distance, btw) is that I'm not always reading the same stories about them that I read every day about Cleveland schools.  Or just the Cleveland streets, for that matter - not long since, a man taking an evening stroll in Cleveland Heights (upscale, gentrified inner-ring - exactly the kind of place you're talking about) was nearly killed by a bunch of thugs out for a good time from neighboring East Cleveland.  You can build up your own neighborhood as much as you like, but you can't make it safe from the nearby shitholes.  That's the other reason that people who can (especially the newly middle-class, who remember what it was like growing up on the mean streets) flee to the suburbs.   Fix the schools, AND make it so I can let my kids play outside without constant vigilance, and I'll consider moving inward.

Of course, that's actually not what I wanted to talk about.  I really wanted to ask this question: just what incentive, exactly, do the outer-ring suburbs have to participate in this "up-zoning"?  Cleveland can zone away, just as it pleases - that's not going to have any effect on Strongsville, Brunswick, Medina, or any of the other far-flung bedroom communities.  They WANT people to move out there - it increases their money and power.  And with cheap farmland to build on, they can offer incentives Cleveland can't begin to match.  So we find ourselves right back at Federal, or at least state, intervention.  I'm not trying to rain on your parade; I just don't see a way around that.

May 5, 2008 10:37 PM

psantillana said:

All these things happen at the same time. Why do you think the inner city schools are so bad? Because they're funded by property tax, and in the 50s and 60s anyone who could afford to run away from the scary black people did, and the more people did that, the poorer it got [black people tending to be poorer on average in those days. Possibly also these days], so it snowballed. Maybe it can snowball back with the mortgage crisis [which seems to be concentrated in the outer rings] and the gas prices. And maybe funding schools with property tax is a sh!t idea.

On an unrelated environmental note - no, wait, it's ALL related; the pollution is confusing the bees, and crops suffer:

www.washingtonpost.com/.../AR2008050401737.html

May 6, 2008 5:10 AM