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COLUMNISTS
TODAY'S STORIES
30.04.2008
Does Gas-Tax Pandering Matter?

Paul Krugman grudgingly acknowledges that Barack Obama is absolutely correct to oppose the sham gas-tax holiday (an ABC news segment made a similar point), but he then goes on to blast Obama anyway:

I’ve been on the road (actually doing a public dialog with Barney Frank on financial reform), so I’m just catching up. Anyway, John McCain has a really bad idea on gasoline, Hillary Clinton is emulating him (but with a twist that makes her plan pointless rather than evil), and Barack Obama, to his credit, says no. ...

Just to be clear: I don’t regard this as a major issue. It’s a one-time thing, not a matter of principle, especially because everyone knows the gas-tax holiday isn’t actually going to happen. Health care reform, on the other hand, could happen, and is very much a long-term issue—so poisoning the well by in effect running against universality, as Obama has, is a much more serious breach.

I'm certainly not convinced that we live in a world where a badly designed tax cut "isn't actually going to happen" but universal health care sits just around the bend. Why, just yesterday Bush said he'd "take a look" at a gas-tax holiday. But I don't think Krugman's larger point is right, either. There is a principle here. Most of the policies designed to curb fossil-fuel consumption are going to raise prices—be it a gas tax, carbon tax, cap-and-trade... There are ways to cushion the blow—as with Peter Barnes's cap-and-dividend plan to rebate the proceeds from auctioning off pollution permits back to taxpayers—but price signals are the surest route to getting people to use less carbon-based energy. 

I'm still not convinced that Obama's an expert at navigating these shoals—see Noam for more. But if we want a realistic shot at averting drastic climate change and weaning the country off oil so that Americans don't keep getting slammed as prices rise inexorably to $200 a barrel, well, then it's not enough for presidential candidates to just lay out nice policy white papers; we'll actually need politicians who don't shriek and start pandering furiously at the first sign of higher prices. Right now, Obama's edged closest to doing that.

--Bradford Plumer

Posted: Wednesday, April 30, 2008 4:53 PM with 12 comment(s)

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teplukhin2you said:

Sorry but for the party of the working man to countenance _any_ scheme that would dramatically increase the already-substantial economic burden of fuel costs on this country's working class is the opposite of progressivism. Do that and you'll hand this election to the GOP. Not to mention erase all the gains our party has made in the past several years.

If anything we should be easing the burden by increasing domestic supply. Samuelson's right: start drilling.

April 30, 2008 12:46 PM

Brad Plumer said:

I hear what you're saying, but fiddling while the planet burns is the opposite of progressivism, too. And doing nothing about the United States's oil addiction so that Americans keep getting slammed as oil reaches $200/barrel is the opposite of progressivism as well.

Also, even if one thinks that global warming is all a big hoax, domestic drilling is still a drop in the bucket.

April 30, 2008 12:50 PM

Lespin said:

Before drifting too far from shore on a melting ice floe about global endangerment, could we instead simply stick the more immediate about-face -- flip-flop, if you prefer -- by the commandante-in-chief, his erstwhile successor and al the other free marketeers. They have turned about, unable to face their constituents who they have lectured incessantly about the merits of demand pricing and its supposed flipside, supply. Now that the simpleton economics they advocate and try to practice is biting too large a crowd to severely, they are offering up balms to soothe angered feelings.

Balmy, isn't it? To flip-flop while the Democrats hold a steadier course.

April 30, 2008 2:16 PM

r-ennis said:

Two issues, energy self sufficiency and global warming, are getting confused. I think it is safe to say that just about everybody, oil companies included, agrees that we need to do something about CO2 emissions, even if some are still inconvinced that a crisis is close at hand. We finally are back on track with gasoline mileage mandates, that substantially reduce  CO2 emissions while and reduce crude oil imports as well, as much as 3.5 million barrels per day.

That being said, we should not create a disincentive for domestic exploration. A few years back, TNR endorsed opening ANWR to development and mandating higher gasoline mileage, also. I think that this would still be good policy, in line with decreasing our dependence on middle east oil. This is not "fiddling while the planet burns". It is sound geopolitical policy.  

April 30, 2008 3:40 PM

GSpinks said:

ANWR would only give us about 1 million barrels a day. This is very literally a "drop in the bucket" of America's consumption of fossil fuels. Add on the extraordinary expense of establishing wells and transport system to get the crude to market from that particular location, and you can include taxpayer "subsidies" to reduce the extraordinary overhead of setting up operations. The net result is, at best, a bad idea.

April 30, 2008 4:53 PM

r-ennis said:

1 million barrels per day is over 10% of our crude oil imports and over 30% of our middle east imports. At $100 per barrel it would save $36.5 billion per year in balance of payments and create many high paid jobs. Hardly a drop in the bucket.

April 30, 2008 5:43 PM

Brad Plumer said:

On ANWR, see here:

>>>>>The report, issued by the Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said that if Congress gave the go-ahead to pump oil from Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the crude could begin flowing by 2013 and reach a peak of 876,000 barrels a day by 2025. ...

With the 876,000 barrels the refuge could provide a day, the reliance on imports would drop to 66 percent of domestic consumption [from 70 percent], the EIA analysis said. The study said it would likely have little impact on world oil prices — perhaps reducing the price by 30 to 50 cents a barrel if prices were in the $27-a-barrel range.<<<<<<<<<

April 30, 2008 5:54 PM

teplukhin2you said:

ANWR's only part of the huge potential here. Drill off the coasts, too.

This should be part of a grand bargain with environmentalists and the alt-fuels lob- er markets. But it has to be two-way. Do not crucify the US working class on a cross of green....

April 30, 2008 8:26 PM

r-ennis said:

Mr. Plumer,

Here is actual data from Oil & Gas Journal, millions of barrels per day

Total Supply 21.6

Domestic Production 7.6

Crude Imports           9.8

Product Imports        3.2

Other                        1.0

Product imports are from Europe and the Carribean. Crude imports include Mexico, Canada and Venezuela. Only about 3 million barrels per day come from the middle east.

I am not arguing that opening ANWR will have a significant effect on price. Only that it is the correct economic and strategic thing to do. Particularly, as tep so ably puts it, if used as a bargaining chip to develop sensible long term solutions to energy and environmental concerns. And, yes. Allowing more offshore drilling would also be significantly helpful.

May 1, 2008 11:35 AM

Brad Plumer said:

If there actually was a deal on the table for a sensible long-term energy policy (say, an economy-wide cap-and-trade system or carbon tax plus dramatically boosted gov't support for clean energy, efficiency, public transit, so forth) in exchange for some more offshore drilling, well, yes, I'd take that deal in a second. But doing only the latter without the former, as Bush is suggesting, strikes me as insane.

May 1, 2008 12:01 PM

r-ennis said:

I agree with your comments, Mr. Plumer. Forget Bush. That's the past, even if McCain is next Pres. This seems to me a reasonable compromise that could get bipartisan support if extremists on both sides are not allowed to carry the day.

May 1, 2008 12:38 PM

amidut said:

I'm about to shift my vote to Obama on account of this. He showed some true courage and understanding of the stakes involved. Not pandering like McCain and Clinton.

May 1, 2008 1:56 PM